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- THE FRIDAY LETTER -
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| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 322.0/January 4,
2008
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HEADLINES:
- The Week / George Gilder: The Dominant Optoelectronic Material?
- Friday Feature / Steve Forbes: Big One in 2008
- Friday Blogger Bonus / Jack Trout: China at a
Crossroads
- Readings /
The Week / The Dominant Optoelectronic Material?
Gilder Telecosm Forum Member (12/27/07): Thought
this might be an interesting read for those who follow laser technologies.
Article: QPC Gets $12 Million Development and Production Order for
Laser TV Applications http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/874288/
George Gilder (12/27/07): These guys need lithium
niobate modulators to convert their infrared emissions to the visible band.
Gilder Telecosm Forum Member (12/28/07): I
believe the lithium niobate modulators only come into play with generation of
the color green, the most difficult color to produce. Essentially done by
sending an IR laser into a lithium niobate crystal.
George Gilder (12/29/07): Routine lithium niobate
external modulators use several techniques to turn on and off (modulate) a
continuous wave laser for communications uses. They are manufactured in
conventional optics facilities, meet the exacting telecom specs and standards
for durability and reliability, and are costly to produce.
However, lithium niobate doped in various combinations with other elements
offer optoelectronic efficiencies for many potential functions beyond merely
turning a light beam on and off at tremendous frequencies. Especially promising
are: 1) the adaptation of this element to enable use of cheap infrared lasers,
from Novalux and others, as powerful emitters of visible light for display
applications; 2) its use to enable highly linear transmission of radio
frequencies onto fiber for cheap and convenient wireless backhaul without
costly conversions and transcodings; 3) exploitation of the element's unique
characteristics to enable new network architectures that employ lithium niobate
devices to drastically reduce the need for costly lasers and amplifiers.
Such innovations promise volumes that would render lithium niobate the dominant
optoelectronic material in the way silicon is the dominant electronic material.
But all such potential mass consumer applications entail development of mass
manufacturing operations and packaging innovations. The industry needs
fiberspeed devices that approach silicon in cost. Companies that solve this
problem may move to the center of the sphere in optoelectronics, where
challenges and opportunities open up in all directions.
To
read more posts by George Gilder and the Gilder Telecosm Forum members, visit http://www.gildertech.com/ and log on today.
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Friday Feature / Big One in
2008
Steve Forbes, Forbes.com (1/4/08): The upcoming U.S. Presidential
election will be the most critical one since 1980. Back then Ronald Reagan
decidedly defeated incumbent Jimmy Carter, ushering in radical new policies
that would successfully set the course of this country for the next
quarter-century. Unlike previous administrations, Reagan's dramatically cut
taxes (the top income tax rate dropped from 70% to 28%). Reagan pushed
government deregulation and reined in nondefense, nonentitlement spending. And,
most important, he won the Cold War, an extraordinary victory that few experts
had thought possible. We have been living off Reagan's dividends ever since.
What course will
the country take now? Will the U.S. significantly simplify the tax code and cut
tax rates, as Rudy Giuliani and some other GOP contenders advocate? Or will we
raise taxes to stagnant, old-Europe levels, as all the Democratic presidential
wannabes favor doing? Will we push for consumer control of health care or will
we have a de facto socialized system, such as that Hillary Clinton is pushing?
Will we turn Social Security from a liability into an asset by allowing people
under the age of 50 to have personal accounts that are owned by them, not by
Washington politicians--a system that will yield far greater returns than the
current Social Security system could possibly do? Or will we go the Democratic
way of heavier payroll taxes and reduced benefits?
Regarding foreign
policy, will we take a broader, more vigorous approach to combating terrorism,
deploying not only our military (which must be beefed up) but also a
Reagan-like type of "soft diplomacy," such as far more effective use
of radio and Internet broadcasts to troubled parts of the world? Will we push
pro-growth economic policies that emphasize sound money, low taxes and property
rights for developing countries or the detrimental high-tax, cheap-money policies
of the current Treasury Department and the IMF?
Fundamental
questions all.
While the mud
will fly, there will also be a vigorous debate on where we go from here. How
that debate is resolved will determine the course of our economy and the
direction of the stock market. If the optimistic example of Ronald Reagan
triumphs, we'll have sound, noninflationary growth, and we'll lead the world in
technological innovation. The stock market will soar easily to new heights. But
if the current Democratic platform wins, we are in for troubled times.
I am an optimist.
I believe the spirit of Ronald Reagan still reigns in this land.
Check out Steve’s “Fact and Comment”
column:
http://www.forbes.com/columnists/global/2008/0107/011.html
________________________________________
Friday Blogger Bonus / China at a Crossroads
Jack Trout, Forbes.com (1/2/08): In a
recent visit to China, I had a sense that the nation's high-speed manufacturing
machine was in need of a course change to avoid a very rough road ahead.
Built as a
low-cost machine aimed at the OEM market, China is truly the world's workshop.
But the explosive growth has come at a high price. There are big environmental
problems of factory pollution and energy shortages. There are quality control
problems that are causing many customers to rethink China as a reliable
supplier. There are "social responsibility" issues that have led the
government to force entrepreneurs to pay higher wages. Managed growth and more
controls are in the offing.
But here's the
difficulty. All these problems will only increase China's manufacturing costs.
That in turn will force manufacturers in China to shift production to lower
cost areas in the country or move to places such as Vietnam. Since there is
always someone out there that will do it for less, if you live by low cost
alone, you will die by low cost.
China must
consider taking what can be called the "branding highway." This takes
it to where it can start to build local and international brands that offer
more than just low price. In other words, instead of making products for
someone else, it makes them for itself. But this road also leads it into the
land of intense competition.
Internationally,
it will be competing with companies that have been winning for years in markets
all around the world. If it makes a mistake, these companies will run right
over it. Locally, it will be competing against many competitors that are only
too willing to cut their price.
Consider the
current China price war over automobiles. There are 19 brands that have less
than 1% market share. This is a recipe for no profits.
Peter Drucker,
the father of U.S. management consulting, once advised that only two business
functions produce new customers. They are "marketing" and
"innovation." All other functions are expenses. This means Chinese
companies have to learn about marketing….
Check out Jack’s “Tales From the
Marketing Wars” column:
http://www.forbes.com/home/opinions/2007/12/29/jack-trout-marketing-chinabrand-oped-cx_jt_0102trout.html
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119939614303465713.html?mod=technology_main_whats_news
Weekly GTI Index
http://www.gtindex.com/
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Friday Letter Editor: Mary Collins George / mcollins@gilder.com
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