_______________________________________________
- THE FRIDAY LETTER -
(emailed weekly,
from Gilder Publishing,
for friends and subscribers)
_______________________________________________
| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 368.0/January 16,
2009
SIGN-UP A FRIEND FOR FREE!
HEADLINES:
- The Week / Climate Debate Skeptics Sway Undecided Vote
- Friday Feature / Steve Forbes: Ireland
Gets It
- Friday Blogger Bonus / The Unstoppable Wave
- Readings /
The Week / Climate Debate Skeptics Once Again Sway Undecided
Vote
January 14,
2009: Intelligence Squared U.S., the
Oxford style debate series sponsored by The Rosenkranz Foundation, announced
the results of its first debate of the Spring 2009 season, "Major
reductions in carbon emissions are not worth the money." In a dramatic
shift, 25% of the undecided vote sided with the motion by the end of the
debate. In the final tally at the conclusion of the debate, a sold out audience
at Symphony Space, New York City, voted 42% for the motion and 48% against. Ten
percent remained undecided.
Prior to the
debate, the audience at Symphony Space, New York City, voted 16% for the motion
and 49% against. 35% were undecided.
The results
echoed a similar outcome on the proposition, "Global warming is not a
crisis," an Intelligence Squared U.S. debate held on March 14, 2007. The
Global Warming debate produced an initial vote tally of 29% for the motion and
57% against. At the conclusion of the debate, the vote margins had reversed
with 46% for the motion and 42% against.
The "Major
reductions in carbon emissions are not worth the money" debate will air on
BBC World News March 7 and 8, 2009. The debate can be heard on NPR beginning
January 21, 2009.
Speaking for the
motion were Peter Huber, author of "The Bottomless Well," Bjorn
Lomborg, author of "Cool It" and "The Skeptical
Environmentalist," and scientist and Emeritus Professor from the University
of London, Philip Stott.
L. Hunter Lovins,
president of Natural Capitalism Solutions, Oliver Tickell, author of
"Kyoto2," and Adam Werbach, global chief executive officer at Saatchi
& Saatchi S, spoke against the motion. John Donvan, correspondent for ABC
News' "Nightline," moderated.
Key comments from this debate included:
"We no longer control demand for carbon... The five billion poor
people are already the main problem -- not us. Collectively, the poor already
emit twenty percent more greenhouse gas than we do. We burn a lot more carbon
individually, of course, but they have a lot more children. Their fecundity has
beaten out our gluttony and the gap is now widening very fast. China, not the
United States, is now the largest emitter of greenhouse gas on the planet and
it will soon be joined by others. It's only a matter
of time. And finally, the poor countries have made perfectly clear that they
are not interested at all in spending what a low carbon diet would cost. They
have more pressing problems."- Peter
Huber
"You know what's going to get China to cut its carbon emissions? It's not
going to be you and me and it's not going to be the government. It's going to
be Wal-Mart, which recently said to its Chinese suppliers, 'You will report
your carbon footprint through a little group called The Carbon Disclosure
Project.' Watch China's emissions start to come down simply because that's the
way the best companies are doing business now."- L. Hunter Lovins
"One quarter
of all the world's deaths are due to easily curable infectious diseases. The
equivalent of the population of Florida, wiped off the map, each year. As an
example, 1 million people die from malaria each year, and up to 2 billion
people get the debilitating disease. Yet, my esteemed opponents will focus on
how global warming will cause a slight increase in malaria 100 years from now,
and suggest that we should fix that through inefficient carbon cuts... So, this
is our chance. Our chance not just to feel good about helping the planet, but
actually to do the right thing, the rational thing, and the morally correct
thing. I commend this motion to you; do what's rational, not just what's
fashionable."- Bjorn Lomborg
A full transcript of this debate will be available at:
http://intelligencesquaredus.org/Event.aspx?Event=32
___________________________________________
Jeff Stambovsky, Gilder Telecosm Forum (1/14/09): I went last night to this debate. Huber stood head-and-shoulders above
the other five participants, including his own team members. Stott and Lomborg
(Huber's teammates) were positively Einsteinian, though, in comparison to the
three members of the opposition. Hunter Lovins, sporting a Texas-size Stetson
over her floor-length blond hair, proved to be all hat and no methane-emitters
with endless anecdotes about her brilliant friends and their wonderful solar
panels and their magical electric cars. Insisting that carbon-free is good
business--that we can reduce emissions and make money at the same time-- she
thus blithely ignored the question under consideration. Adam Werbach, head of sustainability
(WTFTM) at Saatchi and Saatchi, took pretty much the same tack, and threw in a
gratuitous ad hominem attack on Huber just for good measure. Oliver Tickell was
easily the most amusing character on the stage. A 60's-style British radical,
he used the word "could" so many times in his opening statement (sea
levels "could" rise by 50 zillion feet, etc. ) that if that word had
been the cue in a drinking game, the entire audience would have died of alcohol
poisoning before he finished speaking.
I wanted to ask whether we were prepared to spend billions or trillions of
dollars to shield the earth from errant asteroids, which, I have learned from
watching The Discovery Channel and the Bruce Willis movie
"Armageddon" (more scientifically accurate but not as funny as Gore's
"Inconvenient Truth") are a real possibility.
Huber cleaned up with his closing argument: if you vote for the "con"
team (i.e., that major reductions in carbon emissions ARE worth the money) you
have no choice but to send a $40,000 check immediately to a carbon-offset
broker.
To read more
posts by Gilder Telecosm Forum
members, login with your subscriber password at www.Gildertech.com today.
|
The Gilder Telecosm Forum To
learn how to join this powerful network of talented, tech-savvy investors and
thinkers online daily to debate, discuss, and decode new and emerging
technologies and share valuable and actionable investment advice, visit www.Gildertech.com today. |
Friday Feature / Ireland Gets It
STEVE FORBES, Forbes magazine (1/12/09): If
the incoming Obama Administration is serious about squeezing more money from
businesses, it should follow the example of Ireland and slash corporate tax
rates. The U.S. has one of the highest profits levies in the developed world:
35% at the federal level, with another average of 5% from state and local
taxes. Only Japan has worse. In contrast, Ireland's rate is a mere 12.5%.
Imagine the howls from congressional Democrats if Barack Obama were to suggest
enacting such a low corporate tax rate in the U.S.
But the accompanying table tells an eye-opening tale:
Ireland's corporate tax take as a portion of its economy is higher than that of
the U.S. High rates breed pressure for ever more complicated exemptions and
ever more ingenious ways to avoid Uncle Sam's tax bite. But an Irish-like rate
leaves companies to focus brainpower on growing their businesses instead of on
jousting with tax collectors. A general flat tax, such as Yours Truly has been
advocating for decades, would give just such a benefit to both individuals and
businesses. Alas, misbegotten populist ideology still trumps fairness and common
sense.
The Obama White House is pushing a massive stimulus plan that will do
little to reinvigorate the recessed economy. Government spending does not
create prosperity. If it did, the Soviet Union would have won the Cold War. Low
tax rates positively change incentives: Entrepreneurs, venture capitalists and
investors are induced to take more risks; businesses become more
expansion-minded; and individuals positively adjust their own behavior, knowing
that they can keep more of what they earn and that success will not be
punished.
Read on:
http://www.forbes.com/business/global/2009/0112/009.html
__________________________________________
Friday Blogger Bonus / The
Unstoppable Wave
Taylor Frigon, The
Taylor Frigon Advisor (1/12/09): The news today is full of speculation over
the future of the economy. Will the recession run on "for years"?
What kind of government stimulus should be applied? Are the proposed actions
going to be too big, too small, too focused on this group or that group?
While these are important questions, and worthy of analysis by investors, there
is a much bigger investment event taking place, of which many investors are
completely oblivious.
This event is so momentous that it simply will not be stopped by this or that
"stimulus package" decision, will not be stopped even by a recession
as deep as the Great Depression, even though we do not believe investors have
to fear a Great Depression on the horizon. In fact, the event of which we are
speaking is as unstoppable as the Industrial Revolution, which was continuing
its sweeping path of change through the economies of the West during the time
of the Great Depression and was not something that the administrations of
Coolidge, Hoover, or either Roosevelt could have prevented, even if they had
wanted to.
There is every reason to believe that the world is today facing a Bandwidth
Revolution which will be every bit as transformative and unstoppable as the
Industrial Revolution and the Computer Revolution before it.
The most prescient herald of this approaching sea change has been and continues
to be George Gilder. As early as 1996, he published an article in Wired magazine in which he articulated a
vision which, thirteen years later, can be clearly seen to be materializing.
In that article, he explained the concept of "a new paradigm." Each
economic era is dominated by a very different paradigm, characterized by
"a key abundance and a key scarcity." For the thousands of years
prior to the Industrial Revolution, the key scarcity was horsepower -- physical
power -- while land was relatively abundant.
That dominant paradigm has undergone a seismic shift twice in the past century
and a half. First, the Industrial Revolution made mechanical horsepower cheaper
and cheaper and more and more plentiful. Towards the second half of that
revolution, electrical power also became cheaper and cheaper and more and more
plentiful. Power became cheap and plentiful enough to throw at almost any
problem -- from washing and ironing your clothes, to planting and harvesting
crops, to digging mines and tunnels . . . the list is endless.
Then, the Computer Revolution ushered in a completely new paradigm in which a
new abundance would be applied to virtually all areas of business and life.
Instead of supplying power to manipulate the physical world, it supplied
enormous power to manipulate the world of words, images, numbers, texts, and
information. Having lived through it and had its incredible transformations
become part of daily life, we are almost blinded to what a change this second
revolution brought about (desensitized like the proverbial frog being gradually
boiled). But, if you look back at one of the first documents to predict this
second revolution, the famous 1945 article by Vannevar Bush "As We May Think," you can see how
radically the new capabilities have altered the world from which that prescient
author was looking forward to ours. It is well worth a read.
However, while processing power became abundant, and was thrown at every aspect
of life, connectivity -- bandwidth -- was scarce, and it was expensive.
As George Gilder predicted in that Wired article thirteen years ago,
"To grasp the new era, you must imagine that bandwidth will be free and
watts scarce."
In other words, he foresaw yet another massive paradigm shift approaching which
would be as transformative as the Industrial Revolution and the Computer
Revolution. "If bandwidth is free," he wrote, "you get a
completely different computer architecture and information economy." In
fact, he predicted, "the most common computer of the new era will be a
digital cellular phone with an IP address."
This prediction is rapidly becoming reality….
Read Taylor’s Complete Post:
http://taylorfrigon.blogspot.com/2009/01/unstoppable-wave.html
__________________________________________
Readings /
Internet Growth Follows Moore’s Law Too
http://www.physorg.com/news151162452.html
Geithner's Tax Troubles Are Serious
http://www.forbes.com/business/2009/01/13/treasury-geithner-obama-biz-beltway-cx_bw_0113geithner2.html
Google Announced Layoffs
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/google-announces-layoffs-goog
Microsoft is Exploring Job Cuts
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123197886745683743.html
Meet Tim Cook: The Man in Charge of Apple
http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/01/meet-tim-cook-h.html
Gadgets That Really Know You
http://www.forbes.com/technology/2009/01/14/gadgets-know-you-tech-sciences-cx_ag_0114knowyou.html
Seagate to Cut More Workers, Executive Pay
http://www.byteandswitch.com/document.asp?doc_id=170416&WT.svl=news1_2
__________________________________________
Friday Letter Editor: Mary Collins George / mcollins@gilder.com
ADVERTISING INFORMATION
The Friday Letter is mailed each week to more than 40,000-plus
subscribers and friends of Gilder Publishing, including industry leaders,
financial professionals and individual investors. For information about
advertising, contact Lauren Klopacs at lklopacs@forbes.com.
PLEASE NOTE: The appearance of an advertisement in the Friday Letter
does not indicate an endorsement for the product and/or service by George
Gilder, Gilder Publishing LLC, or the Friday Letter staff.
FEEDBACK AND PROBLEMS
For technical problems, or to send letters to the editor, please
e-mail info@gilder.com.
MAILING ADDRESS
Gilder Publishing, LLC
ATTN: Friday Letter
291A Main Street
Great Barrington, MA 01230
_______________________________________________
The Friday Letter is published weekly for subscribers and
friends of Gilder Publishing. If someone you know would enjoy it, please feel
free to forward a copy.
Gilder Publishing makes the Friday Letter available for free. To
help defray some of the costs of producing this information on a weekly basis,
we will from time to time be sending you offers from companies we think you'll
be interested in. These offers will not come more than once a week. If you do
not wish to receive this related information, please opt out of this process at
the link below and we will not share your name with companies outside of Gilder
Publishing.
To SUBSCRIBE please visit http://www.gilder.com/
To UNSUBSCRIBE please go to http://www.gilder.com/fridayletter/unsubscribe.php
Trouble subscribing or unsubscribing?
Email info@gilder.com
http://www.gilder.com/unsubscribe/specialproducts.php
To SUBSCRIBE please visit http://www.gilder.com/
To UNSUBSCRIBE please go to http://www.gilder.com/fridayletter/unsubscribe.php
Trouble subscribing or unsubscribing?
Email info@gilder.com
_______________________________________________
Copyright 2009 Gilder Publishing LLC