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- THE FRIDAY LETTER -
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for friends and subscribers)
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| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 328.0/February
15, 2008
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HEADLINES:
- The Week / EZ Reaction
- Friday Feature / Mobile Carriers See Gold in Femtocells
- Friday Blogger Bonus / The Lifespan
Limit: The Coming Ad Revolution
- Readings /
The
Week /
EZ Reaction
LanOptics
Announces 130% Revenue Growth in 2007: Yokneam, Israel, February 11, 2008 -- LanOptics
Ltd. (NASDAQ: EZCH), a provider of network processors, today announced
its results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2007.
READ ON: http://www.ezchip.com/pr_080211ln.htm
EZchip
Corporate Presentation: http://www.ezchip.com/Images/pdf/LNOP-investorsQ407-080214.pdf
Gilder
Telecosm Forum Member #1 (2/11/08): The only
way to listen to the company's comments and be discouraged is if you are using
the daily stock price as your primary source of research…
Any frustration is a function of our own expectations which have been formed
off of an incomplete understanding of the development cycle. But we now have
the window for the break-out narrowed down to a few months…
Gilder Telecosm Forum Member #2 (2/11/08): I too was struck by [CEO] Eli Fructer not ruling out a 1H08
Cisco move to production with NP-3c… Eli has always been conservative and
understated.
George
Gilder (2/11/08): The key to EZ is its role in the
critical path of the next three generations of networking technology. It
defines the system level products on the fiberspeed level. That means it is
slow to get off the ground, but once aloft will fly high for a long time.
For me there was one major upside
surprise. I would not have guessed that 20 percent of EZ's design wins were
with the two first tier customers. That means a minimum of 10 design wins with
both Juniper and Cisco. That strikes me as huge. EZ penetrated Cisco only a
year or so ago….
To
read more of George Gilder’s comments and dozens of Gilder Telecosm Forum
members’ reactions to the EZchip conference call, visit http://www.gildertech.com/ and become
a Forum member today.
SPECIAL OFFER
|
The Gilder Telecosm Forum To learn how to join this powerful network of
talented, tech-savvy investors and thinkers online daily to debate, discuss,
and decode new and emerging technologies and share valuable and actionable
investment advice, visit www.Gildertech.com
today. |
Friday
Feature / Mobile Carriers See Gold in Femtocells
John Borland, Technology Review (2/15/08): On its face, it sounds like
a company's technological fantasy: a product sold to customers that will also
save the business itself money.
That's
roughly the attraction of a young wireless phone technology called femtocells,
which promise to give homes and businesses their own private wireless phone
networks.
Similar in concept to the Wi-Fi routers that many people use to blanket their homes with wireless Internet access, these little boxes instead provide a network for carrying the voice and high-speed data services of mobile phones. They're designed to give bandwidth-hungry cell-phone subscribers the strongest possible connections at home. But by keeping those customers off the main mobile network and using home broadband connections to transfer data, they could wind up saving the phone companies money, too.
It's
no wonder, then, that equipment vendors say that mobile phone companies are
rushing into this market--with technology and even commercial trials beginning
on both sides of the Atlantic--even before standards have been set or final
technological hurdles cleared.
"Usually
in the networking business, you build equipment, and then drum up demand,"
says Paul Callahan, vice president of business development for Airvana (http://www.airvana.com/), a femtocell
equipment vendor. "This time, demand is already really strong”.…
Read
the complete “Technology Review” article:
http://www.technologyreview.com/Biztech/20293/
________________________________________
Friday Blogger Bonus / The Lifespan
Limit: The Coming Ad Revolution
Taylor
Frigon (2/15/08):
Here is a
link to a story in today's Wall Street Journal by Esther Dyson
entitled "The
Coming Ad Revolution" which discusses major changes in advertising
that have been on their way for years but which few people today even see
coming.
The article outlines an impending paradigm shift in the way people find
information, which will have a tremendous impact on the advertising business
and those that support it.
But this revolution in the way that people find information will impact more
than just the ad industry. We wrote about some of the potential implications in
the world of search two months ago in a post entitled "What is the future
of search?" And there are thousands of other ways in which the kinds of
changes that Dyson is discussing in this article will impact business and life
beyond business.
George Gilder predicted these very same revolutionary forces in his 2000 book Telecosm:
How Infinite Bandwidth Will Revolutionize our World. In chapter 18,
"The Lifespan Limit," he wrote:
"The supreme time waster, though, is television. Many people still have
trouble understanding how egregious a time consumer, how obsolete a business
model, how atavistic a technology, and how debauched a cultural force it is. [.
. .] For as much as seven hours a day, on average, consuming perhaps two thirds
of your disposable time, year after year, all in order to grab your eyeballs
for a few minutes of artfully crafted advertising images that you don't want to
see, of products that you will never buy.
[. . .] In the future, no one will be able to tease or trick you into watching
an ad. Your time is too precious and you are too powerful. Advertisements will
truly add value rather than subtract it" (247 - 252).
The value of your trusted circle of friends, family, colleagues, and various
networks to which you belong or with which you associate may become much easier
to tap into to help you with decisions than ever before, diminishing the power
of old-fashioned advertising as Gilder foresaw years ago and as Dyson describes
in today's article.
You may well make purchasing decisions based on these existing networks, as
well as based on new networks which arise to provide you with access to what
products other consumers like you find valuable.
Based on this outlook, the tremendous valuations for companies like Google,
whose revenues are based upon a very primitive version of tying advertisements
to what you are looking for, may be something of a house of cards. If the
paradigm is truly shifting in the ways that are foreseen by Dyson and Gilder,
there are new opportunities few see now, and the companies most dominant today
may become examples for future discussions of the topple rate.
Check
out Taylor Frigon’s blog:
http://taylorfrigon.blogspot.com/2008/02/paradigm-shift-in-way-you-get.html
__________________________________________
Readings /
The Coming Exaflood: Will the ISPs Lead or Follow?
http://www.nojitter.com/blog/archives/2008/02/the_coming_exaf.html
Qualcomm. Nokia
Close to an Agreement
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120302411169369463.html?mod=technology_main_whats_news
Renesas, Sharp
and PSC To Team Up on LCD Chips
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120296181660167847.html?mod=technology_main_whats_news
The Privacy Paradox
http://www.forbes.com/technology/2008/02/15/search-privacy-ask-tech-security-cx_ag_0215search.html
Gilder Technology Index
http://www.gtindex.com/
News Corp Seeks
Stake in Yahoo
http://www.forbes.com/technology/2008/02/13/newscorp-yahoo-microsoft-tech-cx_wt_0213yahoo.html
__________________________________________
Friday Letter Editor: Mary Collins George / mcollins@gilder.com
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