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- THE FRIDAY LETTER -
(emailed weekly,
from Gilder Publishing,
for friends and subscribers)
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| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 284.0/February
23, 2007
SIGN-UP A FRIEND FOR FREE!
HEADLINES:
- The Week / Analog Link to the World
- Friday Feature / Gilder, Naisbitt Interview
Podcast Available
- Friday Blogger Bonus / Heartland Venture Capital Boom
- Readings /
SPECIAL
OFFER
|
America's Secret Missile Deals Could Bank You 846%! |
The
Week /
Analog Link to the World
Tech Analyst Charlie Burger (Feb. 2007 Gilder
Technology Report): You need analog to link to the world. And your
technology portfolio needs a voracious analog vendor, not a sated gent.
Absent
a clear and ascendant vision, Analog Devices (ADI) has begun losing
ground to some of its formidable foes such as Linear Technology (LLTC), Maxim
Integrated Products (MXIM), and National Semiconductor (NSM), all of
whom have reported analog revenues trending upward over the past two years. By
contrast, during the same period ADI’s top line settled down 2 percent. And
despite recent fab consolidations and analog sales second only to Texas
Instruments (TXN), operating margins continue to flounder in the mid-20s,
well below management’s modest target of 30 percent, as they struggle with
their power-management products and with a distracting digital segment where
expert edge is flagging.
No
thanks to operations, ADI’s earnings have been buoyed this year by aggressive
stock buybacks and bulging interest income—not exactly a recipe for long-term
growth. In keeping with its lackluster attitude, management has peered over the
horizon and sees operating income growing just 4.5 percent annually, assuming
they can keep up with the 15 percent per year growth in their analog market and
can attain their target operating margin of 30 percent. Don’t hold your breath.
To find out which analog company replaced Analog Devices on Gilder’s
Telecosm Technologies list in the February report, log on with your subscriber
ID at http://www.gildertech.com/.
|
Gilder’s
latest picks celebrate swift gains |
Friday Feature / Gilder, Naisbitt Interview Podcast Available
The podcast of George Gilder's C-SPAN interview with
John Naisbitt is now available online
at: http://www.c-span.org/podcast/
Description: John
Naisbitt's first book, Megatrends, predicted future
developments in the economy, business, government, technology, and social systems.
The book sold nine million copies. In his new book, Mind Set!, Mr. Naisbitt explains the
mind sets that help him make sense of the world and anticipate trends. Mr.
Naisbitt is interviewed by fellow forecaster George Gilder.
Direct link to an MP3 download:
http://podcast.rbn.com/cspan/cspan/download/podaudio/arc_btv021707_4.mp3
_________________________
Comments from the Gilder Technology Report subscriber message board
(2/18/07).
GTR Subscriber 1: What a
wonderful interview.....love to listen to those two geniuses go at it ….. they
can completely disagree on subjects and then go right onto the next, but they
have let the audience, reader, hear both sides of the issue and make their
choices.......I love that......well done GG.
GTR Subscriber 2: Great show
- highest common denominator stuff.
GTR Subscriber 3: Yet another
fascinating and counterintuitive idea from George, that the era is a new dawn
for text moreso than for images. Great point he made about this: that if
Naisbitt had to rely on video/images to research his book rather than on text,
he would have been awash in information but perhaps no understanding (I'm
perhaps taking some liberties here, by paraphrasing.) Although newspapers are
in relative decline, the ascendance of email and blogs, for example, does
indeed suggest how important the info revolution is for text, and for the
communication of ideas.
GTR Subscriber 4: An awesome interview. Good fun with global warming, seeking
opportunity not solving problems, Chinese Capitalism as an expression of
freedom, India not able to keep up with China. Two outstanding men. George was
awesome.
|
The Telecosm
Lounge |
Friday Blogger Bonus / Heartland Venture Capital Boom
Rich
Karlgaard, Forbes.com (2/21/07): For the past week, I've been ping-ponging around
America's western heartland.
Last
week, it was Montana, where I met with Gov. Brian Schweitzer in Helena and also
with entrepreneurs and VCs from the state.
Last
night, and today, it is Tulsa, Okla. Same deal: Dinner last night with Mayor
Kathy Taylor and assorted Tulsa entrepreneurs who are finding their fortunes in
everything from software to rental cars to gas cans to oil.
(Between
these trips, I've been visiting my ill Dad in North Dakota. Not much progress
to report, alas.)
What
strikes me is the strength of the American economy across multiple sectors.
Yes--I'm aware that many politicians and economists think today's boom is a
flimsy house built on debt or is too narrowly shared. We have debated this
topic on this blog several times and will continue to do so.
All
I will say today is that American entrepreneurship is alive and well--and
everywhere. I've never seen a time when so much risk capital was available to
fund entrepreneurs--and not just in "usual suspect" places such as
Silicon Valley and Boston, but in places such as Bozeman, Mont., and Tulsa,
too.
What
are your thoughts? Is American entrepreneurship in good health? Have there been
better times in U.S. history to start a business ... almost anywhere? Is the
boom in entrepreneurship good for the American economy as a whole.
Check
out Rich’s Digital Rules blog:
http://blogs.forbes.com/digitalrules/
____________________________________
Readings /
The Weekly GTI
http://www.gtindex.com/
Let’s
Hear it for the Entrepreneurs
http://www.sbishere.com/lets-hear-it-for-the-entrepreneurs/902/
The Promise Of Personal Supercomputers
http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/18219/
Google
Targets Microsoft With Launch Of
Business Applications
http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=197007903
Alcatel-Lucent
Won’t Be Seeing Any Microsoft Money Soon
http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=NG003UE0TJVPAQSNDLOSKH0CJUNN2JVN?articleID=197008271
Why
Good Strategies Fail
http://alwayson.goingon.com/permalink/post/9894
Will
Shutterbugs Snap Up New Digital Picture Frames?
http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/18221/
Biologically
Inspired Vision Systems
http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/18210/
__________________________________________
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FRIDAY LETTER STAFF
Editor: Mary Collins / mcollins@gilder.com
Research: Sandy Fleischmann / sfleischmann@gilder.com
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