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- THE FRIDAY LETTER -
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for friends and subscribers)
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| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 334.0/March 28,
2008
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HEADLINES:
- The Week / The Missing Element: A Path to Huge Profits
- Friday Feature / The Devil’s Delusion (Book of the Month)
- Friday
Blogger Bonus / ANAD’s Exquisitely Exacting Parts
- Readings /
|
THE 12TH ANNUAL GILDER/FORBES TELECOSM
CONFERENCE Visit www.TelecosmConference.com to register online today. |
The Week / The Missing Element: A Path to Huge Profits
George Gilder, Gilder Telecosm Forum (3/21/08): All current computer and networking systems suffer
from missing elements that could enable the integration of electronic logic and
memory with photonic and wireless communications. Moore’s law is facing a
fiberspeed challenge and a mobile-power crunch. Not only must chips operate
hundreds of times faster but they must also consume radically less power.
Resolving these issues offers the path to huge Druckerian profits over the next
decade.
The chief obstacle in fixed systems is that fiber optics capabilities are
advancing at least three times faster than the Moore’s law doubling of
electronic performance every 18 months. A phenomenon once known as Gilder’s law,
the faster rise of optics was obscured for several years by thousands of
bankruptcies of optics-based carriers and suppliers. But the law continues to
apply.
For example, over the last decade Moore’s law has brought a tenfold rise in
electronic clock rates—from roughly 250 MHz in 1997 to 2.5 GHz today.
Meanwhile measured in widely available Ethernet products, optical systems have
increased their speeds roughly one hundredfold: from 100 megabits per second (fast
Ethernet) available in 1997 over multimode fiber to 10-gigabit Ethernet today
over single mode fiber. Plans abound for 100-gigabit Ethernet products for
introduction in the next two years. By other measures, combining number of
wavelengths with capacity per wavelength and transmission distance without
regeneration, optics has increased its capabilities 11 thousandfold in the last
ten years.
Filling the gap between Moore’s law and fiberspeed and Moore’s law and mobile
speed per watt are architectural innovations in both networks and systems.
These advances enable faster electronic systems that can be integrated with
fiberspeed and wireless networks.
Companies representing this paradigm include EZchip (EZCH), NetLogic (NETL),
Cavium (CAVM), Nvidia (NVDA), and AMD/ATI.
All perform at fiberspeed and fit the new network paradigm. EZchip, NetLogic
and Cavium all meet the challenge of IPv6, which increases threefold the amount
of data that must be processed at network nodes. Nvidia and AMD both are
capable of rendering images at fiberspeed.
These advances also provide investment opportunities that span the industry’s
supply chain from semiconductor wafer fabrication, to microprocessor design, to
optoelectronic devices to network architectures, to new computer and handset
I-O. (Find publicly traded examples of
each of these types of companies by logging on to the Gilder Telecosm Forum,
http://www.gildertech.com/). All supply currently
missing elements to complete the prevailing system of information processing
and communications.
To read more of George Gilder’s posts and those of the Gilder
Telecosm Forum members, visit http://www.gildertech.com/ and become a
Forum member today.
|
The Gilder Telecosm Forum To learn how to join this powerful network of
talented, tech-savvy investors and thinkers online daily to debate, discuss,
and decode new and emerging technologies and share valuable and actionable
investment advice, visit www.Gildertech.com
today. |
Friday Feature / The Devil’s Delusion (Book of the Month)
George Gilder: For
most of the last century, Leftist intellectuals have been nagging, lecturing
and intimidating conservatives in the name of “science.” From Marx’s atheistic
class war screeds wrapped in a mumbo jumbo of “scientific socialism” to Sigmund
Freud and Alfred Kinsey pruriently pursuing sex in white coats, to Rachel
Carson and Barry Commoner castigating capitalism and chemistry in scientistic
jargon, they flout and flail the accumulated wisdom of the ages as if it were
merely a cloud of superstition that they had transcended through their mastery
of the behavior of the human id or the ten-spined stickleback or the Hamadryas
Baboon or the Higgs boson or the strange quark. They claim to have debunked man
and God, proving the animal essence of one and the non-existence of the other.
Nobel Laureate Albert Gore foists on the public his climate change chimeras for
all the world like a physician posing before a waterfall in a sylvan glade and
claiming that his new brand of coffin nails for global capitalism is favored by
“four out of five doctors.”
Now David Berlinski has written a book, The
Devil's Delusion, to be published in next two weeks, which says
April Fools to the barbarians of specialization who currently dominate the
philosophy of science. A sophisticated scientist and mathematician himself, he
shows that not only is atheism totally unsupported by any scientific evidence
but that atheism undermines the pursuit of scientific truth itself by inducing
physicists to pursue reductionist goals (particles and strings) that yield no
wisdom or truth about the universe.
Scoffing at the infiniverses of Richard Dawkins and the alien visitations of
Francis Crick and Fred Hoyle, he shows that effective science benefits from a
belief in a monotheistic God.
David will be presenting these ideas on
opening night at Gilder/Forbes Telecosm 2008
in May (see: www.TelecosmConference.com).
Available Now on Amazon.com. Order Your
Copy Today:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0307396266/gilderpublish-20
__________________________________________
Friday Blogger Bonus / ANAD’s Exquisitely Exacting Parts
Gilder Telecosm Forum member (3/21/08):
Any thoughts on Anadigics (ANAD)?
George
Gilder, Gilder Telecosm Forum (3/21/08):
We have seen nothing that would change our view of the long run potential of ANAD. An increasing numbers of cell phones
and PDAs adopt data services and Internet access that require the high
performance linear power amplifiers dominated by ANAD. The teleputer industry
is moving toward the ANAD capabilities (at a far faster rate than rivals) are
mobilizing to supply these exquisitely exacting parts. The chief setback
experienced by the company, you should recall, is a huge surge of demand that
the company could not meet without new investment in manufacturing capacity.
Meanwhile, Paul McWilliams did an extensive detailed report on the company
(“Anadigics: A Second Look,” February 27) after an in depth interview with CFO
Tom Shields, who dispelled nearly all his misgivings.
To read the complete post, visit http://www.gildertech.com/ and become a
Gilder Telecosm Forum member today.
__________________________________________
Readings /
AT&T Set to Offer Qualcomm Service To Broadcast Live Video to Cellphones
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120665707720969923.html?mod=technology_main_whats_news
Industry Leading Keynote
Speakers Will Reflect on Growth of Embedded Systems Over the Last 20 Years
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/03-27-2008/0004781193&EDATE=
Is Global Investing Dead?
Google's Wi-Fi Dreams
http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/20482/
Foldable, Stretchable
Circuits
http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/20481/
Samsung Cuts Sales Forecast
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120671156648171699.html?mod=technology_main_whats_news
__________________________________________
Friday Letter Editor: Mary Collins George / mcollins@gilder.com
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