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- THE FRIDAY LETTER -
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from Gilder Publishing,
for friends and subscribers)
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| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 296.0/May 25,
2007
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HEADLINES:
- The
Week / Zoran Zooms
- Friday
Feature / Best Business Books: Anderson's Picks
- Friday Blogger Bonus / A
Future for Newspapers
- Readings /
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The
Week /
Zoran Zooms
Charlie Burger, Gilder Technology Report (May 2007
excerpt): While
at sea, Zoran (ZRAN) weathered a second storm in addition to its options
review. The fabless designer of media chips reported a sequential freefall in
hardware revenue of 30% during the December quarter. Though the fourth quarter
is traditionally Zoran’s weakest as it cycles a bit ahead of the consumer
market, last year’s results were off 15% from the year-ago quarter. Well,
that’s not exactly the momentum we expect in a growth company. Blame was pinned
on price erosion in the DVD market and delays in launches of new digital
televisions. But we suspect a distracting options review had a lot to do with
it. (Am I going to jail next year?)
It
turns out no one’s going to jail or even getting a wrist slap, the company is
rebounding nicely toward its former growth path, and the stock has appreciated
more than 40% over the past three months, about as we had expected. Zoran
continues to ascend into budding digital media markets for cameras, handsets,
televisions, DVDs, and printer imaging. In particular, its COACH (camera on a
chip) digital camera processors shipped in record numbers during the March
quarter. Last year Zoran increased by half its already leading share of this
market while the market itself grew about 13%. Based on design wins, management
expects to continue building share from just over a quarter currently to nearly
a third of the market by year end.
Zoran is answering the call for faster click-to-click time between shots, quicker ready mode when camera is turned on, and better image capture quality under poor lighting conditions. Typically in the past, these features were found only on high-end cameras. Now Zoran is helping to make them standard on low- and mid-range products at affordable prices. Expected to be in cameras by the second half of this year is the next-generation COACH 10 processor with advanced image processing and high-definition video recording. On the integration road map for future generation chips are anti-blur, auto-dynamic range adjust, and wireless connectivity.
Log on with your subscriber password at www.gildertech.com to read why Charlie believes Zoran (ZRAN) could reasonably
double by 2009.
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Friday Feature / Best Business Books: Chris Anderson's Picks
Chris Anderson, editor-in-chief, Wired magazine; author, The
Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More (5/13/07)
Microcosm: The Quantum Revolution in Economics and Technology by George
Gilder (1989)
Why it's a must-read: "Gilder brings an economist's
breadth of perspective to an engineer's understanding of the underlying
mechanics of semiconductors and was able to really describe the importance and
implications of Moore's Law [which predicts that the number of transistors on
an integrated circuit will double every 18 months]. He's a very controversial
character in many aspects of his life. I don't share many of his views. But
when it comes to the power of technology as it becomes abundant, I don't think
anyone's phrased it as well as he did."
Also on Anderson’s List:
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the
Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2001)
The Cluetrain Manifesto: The End of Business as Usual by
Christopher Locke, Rick Levine, Doc Searls, and David Weinberger (2000)
Out of Control: The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems and the
Economic World by Kevin Kelly (1995)
The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference by
Malcolm Gladwell (2000)
Read Complete Article:
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/articles/070513/21best.anderson.htm
|
The
Gilder Telecosm Forum Register
today using your GTR password to gain entry into the web’s premier
technology investment community: http://www.gildertech.com/board/ |
Friday Blogger Bonus / A Future for Newspapers
Andy Kessler (5/24/07, Wall Street Journal): A
Future for Newspapers
New technology is mucking up the media, and newspapers seem to be
taking the brunt of it. Craigslist and eBay took away classified ad sales,
direct advertisers are allocating budgets to search engines and circulation is
receding faster than Bruce Willis's hairline. Investors seem to prefer the
safety of television broadcasters and cable companies, with their nice,
government-mandated franchises and pipes that reach directly into homes.
Media, after all, is about owning a pipe -- some conduit between
the creation of news or entertainment and the eyeballs that consume it. Media
companies sell the owners of those eyeballs lots of things we weren't even sure
we needed. The higher the ad rates, the better the business. The pipe reaches
the consumer directly, keeping competition at bay. The tighter the pipe, the
less the competition.
For broadcasters, the pipe is spectrum given or bought from the
Federal Communications Commission under the guise that spectrum is scarce. For
cable operators, it is often the sole cable franchise in a town. For phone
companies, it's those regulated copper wires, some of which are so old they
have Alexander Graham Bell's teeth marks in the insulation.
And newspapers? Where's the pipe? What conduit to readers do they control?
Well, there is the guy that drives up and somehow misses your driveway every
morning. Or the sidewalk newspaper dispenser where the homeless man buys one
copy and steals the rest so he can peddle them on street corners. So unless you
are the only paper in town (ask Warren Buffett how much he makes on monopoly
papers like the Buffalo News), there is not much of a pipe to control. Instead,
reputation, quality news gathering, trust and credibility maintain the
franchise, something The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times enjoy on a
national level and the Washington Post and others have locally.
But so what, it's all over, right? The Internet has destroyed newspapers'
business model. If Google News doesn't kill them, blogs certainly will. Hmm,
maybe not so fast.
Last I checked, the Star Trek Holodeck, despite a Wikipedia entry, is still
fiction. No one is teleporting a newspaper to your home anytime soon. Unlike music
which can be copied once and stolen a million times, newspapers live in the
material world. Thankfully, as an author, it's the same for books. Even a
30-inch screen can't match the readability of what cheaply spits out of a
printing press ….
Read Andy’s Complete Commentary:
http://www.andykessler.com/andy_kessler/2007/05/wsj_a_future_fo.html
____________________________________
Readings /
Ten Thinkers and Scientists Who Could Change the World
http://www.forbes.com/home/technology/2007/05/23/revolutionaries-innovators-science-tech-07rev_cx_ee_mn_0524rev_land.html
Resisting Vista?
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/articles/070515/15vista.alternatives.htm
New superfast
wireless broadband device prototype submitted to FCC
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070522-new-superfast-wireless-broadband-device-prototype-submitted-to-fcc.html
China’s Tech Generation Finds New Chairman
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/people/news/2007/05/chairmangates
MySpace Vs. The Do-It-Yourselfers
http://www.forbes.com/technology/2007/05/23/myspace-profile-photobucket-tech-cx_rr_0524myspace.html
Lenovo
Loses One of Its Stars
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117993573819312191.html?mod=home_whats_news_us
The
Weekly GTI
http://www.gtindex.com/
__________________________________________
FRIDAY LETTER STAFF
Editor: Mary Collins George / mcollins@gilder.com
Research: Sandy Fleischmann / sfleischmann@gilder.com
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