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| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 300.0/June 29,
2007
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HEADLINES:
- The
Week / George Gilder: Envoi
- Friday Feature / Charlie Burger on Hittite (HITT)
- Friday Blogger Bonus / George Gilder on Anadigics (ANAD)
- Readings /
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The
Week /
George Gilder: Envoi
George Gilder, June 2007 Gilder Technology Report:
I have just
returned from a rousing speaking tour that took me from a former Turkish prison
refurbished as a Four Seasons Hotel in Istanbul to a moonlit classroom beyond
the wall in the old city of Jerusalem and then to an Amway Grand Hotel in Grand
Rapids, Michigan, in circuitous preparation for this newsletter, which was a
challenge to write. In Istanbul, I confidently discoursed on “Fact and Rumor in
the Media” for the Discovery Institute and the Fjelstad Foundation. I concluded
that the falsifiability of rumors rendered them more scientific than so-called
“scientific facts” such as human-caused global warming that are deemed
irrefutable by their proponents despite increasing evidence of their falsity
(for example, from glacier records that show nearly all the shrinkage preceded
human accumulations of CO2 and from the presence of warming on Mars,
Jupiter, Neptune, Triton, and other bodies in the solar system untouched by
SUVs and perhaps even unbribed by Halliburton).
From Istanbul, I proceeded to Israel to investigate the idea-rich companies lurking everywhere in this pullulating version of Silicon Valley East. I ended my tour in Grand Rapids, where I was attacked on the back of my neck by an indignant red-winged blackbird. Perhaps an avian Darwinian showing off its well-evolved Galapagan beak, it plunged down at me from behind both on the way out and on the way back as I ran along the Grand River. Chastened and confused by the bird, whose motives eluded me, I left for an auditorium to explain the altruistic sources of capitalist wealth. Selfishness, I told the crowd, leads as by an invisible hand to socialism, not capitalism, as greedy people spurn work and risk and seek guaranteed gains and pelf from government.
Now
it is the next afternoon and I sit in Banjoe’s Café near gate C-22 in the
Lebron James International Airport in Cleveland. (I am guessing the name from
the Chairman Mao ubiquity of James’ image.) Thumbing my way through the June 26
edition of PC Magazine, I find it identifies Verizon (VZ) as “the
best ISP [Internet service provider] in America.” (Verizon also runs the best
cellular network, based as it is on the latest Qualcomm EV-DO
technology.) But executive editor Jeremy Kaplan opens his article on ISPs with
a strange paragraph on the word Gigabit [per second], which he declares to be
merely “a hundred times faster than megabit.” Oh, well. Someone nodded in the
copy-editing department at PC Magazine. I proceed through Kaplan’s
interesting story on a PC Magazine project testing the bandwidth
performance of ISPs around the globe over an 11-month period covering data from
40,000 users in 162 countries.
The
results reaffirm the ascendancy of fiber to the home. To my surprise, passive
optical networks (PONs) came first to the local loop rather than to the core of
the network. But the technology is superior in both applications. For
communications, optics will prevail. But photons cannot be stored and do not
affect one another. Therefore, electronics will continue to dominate packet
processing, computing, data processing, and memory. Software will harden into
glass at the center of the network, while hardware will soften into
programmable and flexible forms on the network edge.
This
paradigm recalls my visit in Israel to a company called BroadLight in a
spectacular skyscraper in a city named Ramat Gan outside Tel Aviv. BroadLight leads
the world in GPON (gigabit passive optical network) silicon devices, which
operate around a thousand times faster than megabit digital subscriber line
(DSL) or T-1 systems. Enabling a wirespeed fiber-to-the-residence system,
BroadLight is 5 percent owned by Broadcom (BCRM) and is apparently
targeted to be bought by them. But if Broadcom nods, investors should watch for
an important IPO from this potent company.
To read the complete June issue of the Gilder Technology Report, become
a registered member of the GILDER TELECOSM FORUM. Visit http://www.gildertech.com/
for subscription details.
|
The Gilder
Telecosm Forum This
is it for the Gilder Technology Report (GTR). Long live the Gilder Telecosm Forum (GTF), where
Charlie Burger, Nick Tredennick, and I will post our reports and reflections,
as we have been doing for the last ten years. Become
a GTF member today: http://www.gildertech.com/ |
Friday Feature / Charlie Burger: Hittite Happenings
Charlie
Burger, June 2007 Gilder Technology Report:
A company in
transformation, Hittite Microwave (HITT) is building an arsenal of
analog products that should drive serious long-term growth, and investors must
resist microanalyzing the company on the myopic quarterly scale so prevalent on
Wall Street. This was our thesis when we added the company to our list four
months ago (see February 2007 GTR) and the story has not
changed.
Though
revenue has risen an average 36 percent over Hittite’s first two decades, sales
of $130 million in 2006 still represented only a fraction of a percent of the
company’s total addressable market. To continue to outgrow these markets and
rivals such as Agilent (A), Analog Devices (ADI), and Linear
Technology (LLTC), management is stoking its research and development
engine.
In February, Hittite introduced its first pure
silicon CMOS product, an advanced switch matrix for broadband satellite
equipment. The switch replaces a gallium arsenide (GaAs)–based product while
migrating from a 6-inch to an 8-inch wafer process, thereby improving
manufacturing efficiency in a product that also increases performance and
reduces power usage over previous solutions. Though most of Hittite’s revenue
is still GaAs-based, the move to CMOS reflects a steady progression into other
processes, including the first silicon-germanium products introduced some three
years ago followed by BiCMOS solutions two years later.
Furthering
its leadership in low phase-noise performance, critical both for radar systems
and for advanced modulation formats employed in fiber-optic networks, Hittite
recently began offering two wideband amplifiers that use a GaAs HBT
(heterojunction bipolar transistor) process and novel circuit designs to
achieve significantly reduced phase-noise compared to field-effect transistor
(FET)–based amplifiers. Also added were the company’s first digital phase
shifters.
Learn more about Hittite’s
ambitious goals.
Become a GILDER TELECOSM FORUM member and read the complete June
issue of the Gilder Technology Report. Visit http://www.gildertech.com/ for
subscription details.
__________________________________________
Friday Blogger Bonus / George Gilder on Anadigics
George Gilder, Gilder Telecosm Forum (6/25/07):
I just read an intriguing analysis of Anadigics
(ANAD) on Paul McWilliams’s Next Inning
site that speculated on the possibility that bars on Qualcomm
(QCOM) EV-DO imports would harm ANAD because of its close relationship with
Qualcomm.
Could create a buying op in the very short run, but I
doubt that it will happen. ANAD also has a close relationship with Intel (INTC)
and the WiFi community and with GSM (TI et al), all of whom might be seen as
temporarily benefiting from the exclusion of Qualcomm chips.
I would watch ANAD and buy on dips.
To become a GILDER TELECOSM FORUM
member, visit: http://www.gildertech.com/
__________________________________________
Readings /
The
Weekly GTI
http://www.gtindex.com/
Big shakeup predicted in flash
memory markets
http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=200000644
iPhone Under the Knife
http://www.forbes.com/home/technology/2007/06/29/apple-iphone-parts-tech-cx_rr_0629teardown.html
3G iPhone for
Europe to be announced Monday?
http://www.engadget.com/2007/06/29/3g-iphone-for-europe-to-be-announced-monday/
The Saboteurs of Search
http://www.forbes.com/technology/2007/06/28/negative-search-google-tech-ebiz-cx_ag_0628seo.html
FTC Nixes Net Neutrality
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2007/06/ftc_net.html
Five chipmakers control 32% of manufacturing, says
analyst
http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=200001305
YouTube: 50% More Traffic than Other Video Sites Combined
http://weblogs.hitwise.com/leeann-prescott/2007/06/youtube_50_more_traffic_than_o_1.html
Weighing the value of today's processors
http://techreport.com/reviews/2007q2/pricevperf/index.x?pg=1
__________________________________________
FRIDAY LETTER STAFF
Editor: Mary Collins George / mcollins@gilder.com
Research: Sandy Fleischmann / sfleischmann@gilder.com
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