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― THE FRIDAY
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| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 255.0/July 14, 2006
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HEADLINES:
▪ The Week / EPON Superiority
▪ Friday Feature / Tax Cuts, Budget
Deficits and the Economy
▪ Friday Blogger Bonus / The Best in Innovation
▪ Readings /
|
Gilder/Forbes TELECOSM Conference |
The Week / EPON Superiority
‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾
Gilder Subscriber (7/11/06): I have been speaking to a lot of field service guys,
some engineers from the old Quantum Bridge, and some visiting engineers from
the Far East (mainly China, Romainia, and India).
The first trials in India for FTTP/H (fiber to the premises/home) is scheduled
this year. The chosen path is EPON (Ethernet passive optical network). Do you
know about this deployment? All have indicated that GEPON (gigabit Ethernet
passive optical network) is where things will eventually end up in the Far
East. What does it take to migrate from EPON to GEPON?
Gilder
Tech Analyst Charlie Burger (7/11/06): EPON and GEPON are one and the same. In the Far East it is generally
called “GEPON” because it is symmetrical gig. Perhaps you are thinking of the
10GEPON (10-gigabit EPON) currently proposed by Teknovus and I believe PMC-Sierra/Passave
(PMCS). Or you may be confusing it with GPON (gigabit PON).
I have not heard of the report about India, but am not surprised they have
taken the same EPON route as their neighbors to the east. You may recall from
my Gilder Technology Report piece this past spring, after the Optical
Fiber Conference (OFC), on what I think is the superiority of EPON over BPON
(broadband passive optical network) and the emerging GPON.
According to Linley, last December, they expected that essentially the whole
world except the Far East (Japan, Korea, maybe China) would migrate to GPON, as
the U.S. and Europe are doing. I was surprised, but that was before the
announcement of 10GEPON or of a 2.5gig EPON version announced by Teknovus.
At OFC, there was some buzz that the big carriers were still considering EPON
instead of GPON (probably because of the possibility to migrate to 10GigE), but
I think the chance was always slim. HERE'S WHY: Neither 2.5GEPON nor 10GEPON is
symmetrical, as proposed. They are both 1 Gig up, as is EPON. In order to get a
symmetrical system they would have to impose stricter burst-mode laser
standards and other standards and would lessen the advantage over GPON (which
is symmetrical 2.5gig in its full implementation)--though it still would not
have the complexity of multiple standards. Symmetrical is paradigmatic in a
peer-to-peer world.
What will eventually happen in the GPON v. 10GEPON race worldwide over the next
half decade, I don't know. Passave was working hard on GPON when bought by
PMC-Sierra and my feeling is that PMCS will greatly improve their chances to
deploy it because of the telco legacy they gain. So they may have a chance
during the current round in this country, if they are far enough along. More
likely they will first win GPON abroad, if indeed Linley is right about its
global emergence.
Excerpted from posts on the www.Gildertech.com
subscriber-only message board. Visit the board and share your thoughts by
logging in with your GTR subscriber ID.
|
The
End of Medicine, by Andy
Kessler |
Friday Feature / Wesbury: Tax Cuts, Budget Deficits and the Economy
‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾
This week, the White House will revise its fiscal year 2006 budget deficit
estimate to roughly $300 billion, a significant reduction from its January
forecast of $423 billion. This will continue the White House's pattern of
very conservative estimates.
Our calculations suggest that the federal budget deficit this year will be
approximately $260 billion. This is down from $318 billion in FY-05 and
$413 billion in FY-04.
Strong gains in tax receipts have overwhelmed increased federal spending.
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data show that federal tax receipts during
the nine months ending in June were 12.8% above the same period in FY-05.
Withheld income taxes increased 9% in June from last year; non-withheld income
tax payments surged by 20%, while corporate tax receipts grew by 17%.
Read Brian Wesbury’s Complete Article:
http://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/research/viewresearcharticle.aspx?id=110
Related Reading
It’s Tax-Cut Time Again
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NTlhN2ZiOGQwYWJjMTBiNzUyM2IyNWQyMTcwNTQ0MGU=
It’s
The Productivity, Stupid
http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=071306A
|
A N N O U N C I N G : The
Gildertech Blog |
Friday Blogger Bonus / The Best in Innovation
‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾
This week AlwaysOn announced the AO100 Top Private
Companies for 2006. The fourth-annual elite AO100 list was compiled by the
AlwaysOn editorial panel. In order to make the AO100 list, companies had to be
peer-nominated, with AlwaysOn receiving more than 1,000 nominations from
venture investors, investment bankers and other industry experts.
Read the Complete List of Honorees:
http://alwayson.goingon.com/permalink/post/2575
Hear George Gilder Speak at the AO2006 Innovation Summit, July 25 – 27, at
Stanford:
http://alwayson.goingon.com/permalink/post/866
Check
Out the AlwaysOn Blog Site:
http://www.alwayson.goingon.com/
____________________________________________
Readings /
‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾
South Korea's RFID
market to reach $500M, says report
http://www.eet.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=189800040
Our
Off-the-Books Fiscal Problem
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OTg0MTM1NGY1NzMxNzI0ZGMwNTU2OWViYjgxMTFkZDk=
What
Billions Can Buy
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6515
Minimum
Wage Socialism
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6484
Karlgaard:
The Scandinavian Model
http://www.forbes.com/columnists/forbes/2006/0724/039.html
What Chip Glut
http://www.forbes.com/technology/2006/07/11/chip-glut-equipment_cx_ck_0711chips.html
Turn
Down The Heat…Please
http://www.reed-electronics.com/electronicnews/article/CA6350202?nid=2019&rid=2052959400
Intel,
TI Lead China Chip Market
http://www.reed-electronics.com/electronicnews/article/CA6351496?nid=2019&rid=2052959400
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