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- THE FRIDAY LETTER -
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for friends and subscribers)
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| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 258.0/August 4, 2006
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HEADLINES:
- The
Week / Life After the Telephone?
- Friday
Feature / Broadcom’s Anticipated 3Q Slump
- Friday
Blogger Bonus / Securing the Net
- Readings /
|
Gilder/Forbes
TELECOSM Conference |
The Week / Life After the Telephone?
George
Gilder:
Back in 1990, I wrote a book called Life After Television,
which declared the television was dead and I must admit that its smoldering
carcass has remained, emitting fumes in Americans’ living rooms, for decades
since and perhaps decades to come … But, essentially, what is happening is that
software in hardening in the center of the network and hardware is softening on
the edge of the network, so that hardwired TVs and hardwired telephones are
giving way to teleputers, which are software adaptable at the edge. At the
center of the network software is hardening into all-optical technology and
eventually the center of the network will be world wide webs of glass and light
and all of the action will move to the edge of the network, ushering in the
life after telephony that we are discussing in this panel.
View the complete Webcast of the George’s “Life After the Telephone?” panel
at the AlwaysOn Innovation Summit, held last week in Stanford:
http://webcast.goingon.com/Conf/Stanford/2006/Flash_Archives/archive.php?session=session16
|
The
End of Medicine, by Andy
Kessler |
Friday Feature
/ Broadcom’s
Anticipated 3Q Slump
GTR Tech Analyst Charlie
Burger (07/25/06): In April, we called Broadcom a dilution demon—shares had been diluting
at a brisk 15% per annum. At the time we estimated that continued dilution at
that pace would wipe out any possibility of an increase in earnings per share
this quarter if, revenue were to rise within bounds of guidance, which it did.
Continued flatness on sequential EPS would have set Broadcom on a path toward
$1.44 for the year. But that would have required more sales upsides. With next
quarter’s forecasted fall back to first quarter’s sales, the company has now
slipped below $1.44.
In addition to dilution, holding back earnings growth yet further are falling gross margins and rising operational expenses. Broadcom can’t fill in the financial details until it completes its internal review of options grants policies, but even this sketchy information is enough to warn us that there are operational problems beyond backdating. In addition to margin pressures, those problems include a pending inventory correction.
Specifically, Broadcom blames its anticipated third-quarter slump on inventory builds across up to half of its products and markets. To allay fears of a protracted slowdown, management gave an uncharacteristic two-quarter outlook, forecasting fourth-quarter sales to surpass the second-quarter’s record. But Broadcom has such a potpourri of markets and customers that it may be wise not to rely on such a forecast.
More
reliably, we still believe that Broadcom has a good shot at continuing its
ascent into the teleputer and life-after-television paradigms if it continues
to innovate into mounting markets for VoIP, digital TV, GigE, 10 GigE, and
residential broadband gateways. For instance, second quarter growth was led by
broadband and wireless, with enterprise networking flat. The company noted
particular strength in DSL, cable set-top boxes, digital TV, HD DVD, and
wireless LANs…
Can
Broadcom transition from a fading 2G wireless business to 3G?
Find out by
reading Charlie Burger’s complete post on the GTR subscriber-only message board. Just visit http://www.gildertech.com/ and log in
with your GTR subscriber ID.
|
A N
N O U N C I N G :
The Gildertech Blog |
Friday Blogger Bonus / Securing
the Net
[At the
AlwaysOn Innovation Summit, last week] George Gilder revisited his trope about
all optical networks, with software hardening at the center and trusted
platform hardware softening at the edges, during his panel on securing the
Intenet at the AlwaysOn Stanford Summit. "Moving security all the way to
the edge seems to me to be a better solution than giant routers in the center
of the network," Gilder said. Of course, the all optical network hasn't
arrived yet, much to Gilder's chagrin.
The
discussion among the panelists–John Stewart, vice president and CSO, Corporate
Security Programs Organization at Cisco; Greg Pierson, CEO of iovation; Greg
Papadopoulos, CTO and EVP of Research and Development at Sun; and Kevin
Hassett, Director of Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute–was
all over the security map, from identity fraud and trusted networks to layered
architecutres and routers.
“The
biggest threat we have is making the Internet too secure," said Sun's
Papadopoulos. "We have the technology and it will evolve, and some
startups will make lots of money [solving security problems]. I wish we could
do really good digital rights management. It's important that people get to
break the law, it's a way of progressing how the law works. If you get absolute
control that may stop experimentation in doing derivative works, commenting on
other people's content [the Larry Lessig view on digital rights], and that's
bad. The other view is that a lot of protocols done in the name of security end
up being highly closed, with control in the hands of one company. We see that
as a potentially big threat. For example, with the Trusted Platform, who say
what is trusted?"
Read Dan Farber’s complete blog:
http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=3396
View
the archived Webcast of the panel:
http://stanfordsummit.goingon.com/permalink/post/2048
___________________________________________
Readings /
More Comes From
Knowing More
http://www.opinionjournal.com/la/?id=110008738
It’s Location, Location, Location In The
Sarbox Aftermath
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NGE0NGYyYTNjOWM1MTNkMjUyY2FhMDMxMDg5YWM3NzM=
Supply vs Supply, Part Deux
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MGQ3NjViN2Y5MGNhZjM3ZTcxZTk3ZTM1ZDM5ZGE1ZTk=
Wesbury:
Has The Economy Been Taking Steroids?
http://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/research/viewresearcharticle.aspx?id=124
A
Little Eco-Nomics Never Hurt
http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=073106B
AMD Adds IBM
http://www.forbes.com/2006/08/01/ibm-amd-opteron_cx_ck_0801amd_print.html
Main Stream Media Wrongly
Claims There Is No Telco Innovation For Net Neutrality To Chill
http://www.disco-tech.org/2006/08/post_13.html
Microsoft, Ready To Deal
http://alwayson.goingon.com/permalink/post/3460
Kodak Outsources Digital
Camera Production
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/4085999.html
Shifts Coming for Top 15 Semi Supplier Rankings
http://www.reed-electronics.com/electronicnews/article/CA6357801?nid=2019&rid=2052959400
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Research: Sandy Fleischmann / sfleischmann@gilder.com
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