_________________________________________________
- THE FRIDAY LETTER -
(emailed weekly, from Gilder Publishing,
for friends and subscribers)
__________________________________________________
| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 259.0/August 11, 2006
SIGN-UP A FRIEND FOR FREE!
HEADLINES:
- The
Week / The
Coming CAM Cornucopia
- Friday
Feature / Has Steve Jobs Lost His Magic?
- Friday
Blogger Bonus / Battling Evil
- Readings /
The Week / The Coming CAM Cornucopia
Excerpted from the Gilder Technology Report subscriber-only message
board.
GTR
Subscriber
Question (8/9/06): Any update
on Essex (KEYW), NetLogic (NETL) or EZchip (LNOP)?
GTR Tech Analyst Charlie Burger
(8/9/06): I was concerned about taxes
at Essex (KEYW), but the stock is up on the higher revenue projection
and the fact that it had come down unreasonably. Not much to say on EZchip (LNOP),
as not much was expected this quarter.We will see them at Telecosm 2006 (October 4 – 6,
in Lake Tahoe). Terry Turpin of Essex will be there as well, with the two
other Essex gurus whom I wrote about in my Hyperfine issue last
December. (Read the
complete December 2005 Gilder Technology Report.)
The following is a brief introduction to the research I’ve recently completed
on NetLogic (NETL).
For five or six years a single chip will not be able to perform all the
constantly expanding functions of networking. Among the various coprocessors
still needed will be off-chip memories—called content addressable memories
(CAMs) or knowledge-based processors—for fast searches, sorts, and scans from
the likes of NetLogic. Six months ago we sang NetLogic's praises and then told
you to hold your horses until it got cheaper. At the time the stock was selling
for $37, only to spike to $45 in April before bottoming below $23 in July (not
far from the current price).
So, what are we waiting for?... For a down market move.
Until now, NetLogic's forte has been layer 3/4 processing of packet headers
with its flagship NL5000 family of knowledge-based processors and more recently
the advanced NL6000 line. Beginning later this year the company will be going
after entry-level layer 2/3 switches and routers with its NETLite line,
followed by layer 7 products next year. NETLite sheds the highly parallel
searches and deep pipelining of the NL5000/6000 family and uses a simplified
instruction set and low-cost manufacturing, thereby reducing both power and
price. CEO Ron Jankov expects NETLite's market to grow rapidly during 2007 as
requirements of voice and video drive increased functionality and performance
into Internet access boxes.
Helping
NetLogic's prospects down market are expanding design partnerships with Broadcom
(BRCM), Marvell (MRVL), EZchip (LNOP), Xelerated, and Greenfield.
As a bonus, Cypress Semiconductor (CY) recently sold the assets and
intellectual property of its standard network search engines to NetLogic --
including the Ayama and NSE70000 families and the Sahasra 50000 algorithmic
search engine family.
On the high end, NetLogic stands almost alone at layers 3/4 with its NL5000 and
NL6000 families of CAMs for advanced core/edge routers and enterprise/metro
switches. But competition is brewing.
Read
more about NETL’s competition at the high end by logging on at www.gildertech.com to read Charlie
Burger’s complete analysis on NETL’s role in the coming CAM cornucopia and what
it means for investors.
|
Gilder/Forbes
TELECOSM Conference |
Friday
Feature / Has
Steve Jobs Lost His Magic?
Leander Kahney (8/8/06): Steve Jobs' keynote speech on Monday was the most uninspiring he's given in recent memory. It hints at the trouble Apple will be in marketing-wise if he ever steps down.
Steve
Jobs usually gives his keynote speeches solo, but at Apple's annual developers
conference here on Monday morning, he shared presenting duties with three of
his lieutenants, leaving the stage whenever they took turns to get up and talk.
Jobs
is so charismatic, his talks are usually mesmerizing. I've seen almost every
one he's given in the last 10 years, and he effortlessly sucks the audience
into his famous "reality distortion field," a state of suspended
disbelief that makes even mundane products seem like miracles of technology.
In
the past, I've found myself clapping wildly at the most mundane product
features, or the tiniest increase in market share, despite trying to maintain a
steely, Zen-like editorial impartiality.
But
on Monday, the yo-yoing of alternating presenters utterly broke the spell.
Mundane product details were revealed for what they were -- mundane product
details.
Looking
very thin, almost gaunt, Jobs used the 90-minute presentation
to introduce a new desktop Mac and preview the next version of Apple's
operating system, code-named Leopard.
The
sneak preview of Leopard was underwhelming…
Read Leander Kahney’s Complete Wired Article:
http://www.wired.com/news/columns/cultofmac/0,71557-0.html?tw=wn_index_25
|
When the Gilder Technology Report first alerted
subscribers to Essex Corp., in August 2001, it was a tiny company with a
trove of analog optical inventions and expertise, but little revenues or
profits. Essex is now the world's leading
company in analog optics and, by last summer, its price had
quadrupled! When
many investors were seeing their portfolios beaten down by tech stocks,
George Gilder continued to point subscribers to the right tech companies at
the right time, continuing the Gilder Technology Report's outstanding
performance, with a technology portfolio up 232% since the October 2002
market low. Subscribe
to Gilder Technology Report and Get the Next Tech Winner! |
Friday Blogger Bonus / Battling Evil
Steve Forbes: Appeasement
did not work with dictatorships in the 1930s (Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy,
Imperial Japan), and it has again failed abysmally against today's forces of
evil. North Korea signed an agreement in 1994 with the U.S. to curtail its
nuclear bomb ambitions in return for a reduction in trade and investment
barriers and for nuclear power technology. But, if anything, Pyongyang ramped
up its nuclear armament efforts. Now it's rattling its rocket saber in the
hopes of more payoff money. Iran has treated numerous diplomatic initiatives to
suspend its atomic weapons efforts with contumely and scorn. Tehran extremists,
including President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, believe they're winning. In their
minds their terrorist-backed efforts forced the U.S. out of Lebanon in 1984 and
Israel out of southern Lebanon in 2000 and the Gaza Strip last year. They think
we are tiring in Iraq and that our in-defeat pullout is just a matter of time.
Read
more on Steve Forbes’ “Fact and Comment” page:
http://www.forbes.com/columnists/business/forbes/2006/0814/027.html
RELATED
READING
Foiling the Would-Be Hijacker
http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,71575-0.html?tw=wn_index_3
Planes Remain Vulnerable Targets
http://www.wired.com/news/wireservice/0,71571-0.html?tw=wn_index_13
|
A N N O U N C I N G : The
Gildertech Blog |
Readings /
One Forecast
Puts OUM Ten Years Out
http://www.eet.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=191900450
Phone
Pork
http://www.forbes.com/technology/2006/08/08/beltway-rural-telecoms-cz_td_0809beltway.html
Google’s Questionable Clicks
http://www.forbes.com/technology/2006/08/10/google-schmidt-advertising_cx_rr_0810google.html
Paulson’s
Promise (And Problems)
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ODNjNDk0OTBhNDQxMjc2YmJhZTk1NjE2ZWU2MjA5OWM=
Wesbury:
Monday Morning Fed Watching
http://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/research/viewresearcharticle.aspx?id=130
PG&E Vows Fivefold Increase In Solar Use
http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/15252246.htm
WiMax:
The Morning After
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2006/08/09/wimax-the-morning-after/#comments
Clearer
Signals For Faster Phone Downloads
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17293&ch=infotech
Speeding
Up Nanomedicine
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17292&ch=nanotech
___________________________________________
SIGN-UP
A FRIEND FOR FREE!
Click here to add a friend to our Friday Letter mailing
list.
_______________________________________________
FRIDAY LETTER STAFF
Editor: Mary Collins / mcollins@gilder.com
Research: Sandy Fleischmann / sfleischmann@gilder.com
ADVERTISING INFORMATION
The Friday Letter is mailed each week to more than 150,000-plus
subscribers and friends of Gilder Publishing, including industry leaders,
financial professionals and individual investors. For information about
advertising, contact Mary Collins at mcollins@gilder.com.
PLEASE NOTE: The appearance of an advertisement in the Friday Letter
does not indicate an endorsement for the product and/or service by George
Gilder, Gilder Publishing LLC, or the Friday Letter staff.
FEEDBACK AND PROBLEMS
For technical problems, or to send letters to the editor, please
e-mail info@gilder.com.
MAILING ADDRESS
Gilder Publishing, LLC
ATTN: Friday Letter
291A Main Street
Great Barrington, MA 01230
_______________________________________________
The Friday Letter is published weekly for subscribers and
friends of Gilder Publishing. If someone you know would enjoy it, please feel
free to forward a copy.
Gilder Publishing makes the Friday Letter available for free. To
help defray some of the costs of producing this information on a weekly basis,
we will from time to time be sending you offers from companies we think you'll
be interested in. These offers will not come more than once a week. If you do
not wish to receive this related information, please opt out of this process at
the link below and we will not share your name with companies outside of Gilder
Publishing.
http://www.gilder.com/unsubscribe/specialproducts.php
To SUBSCRIBE please visit http://www.gilder.com/
To UNSUBSCRIBE please go to http://www.gilder.com/fridayletter/unsubscribe.php
Trouble subscribing or unsubscribing?
Email info@gilder.com
_______________________________________________
Copyright 2006 Gilder Publishing LLC