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| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 261.0/August 25, 2006
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HEADLINES:
- The
Week / Ascending Into Life-After-Television
- Friday
Feature / Would “Net Neutrality” Screw
Up IPTV?
- Friday
Blogger Bonus / Friendly Debate with Supply-Side Titan
- Readings /
The Week / Ascending Into Life-After-Television
Excerpted from
the August 2006 issue of the Gilder Technology Report.
GTR Senior Technology Analyst Charlie Burger,
with George Gilder: Ascending into life-after-television with its
superior liquid crystal displays (LCDs), exotic green lasers, last-mile fiber
webs and cable triplays is Corning (GLW). With virtually 100 percent of
the world still trapped in a copper cage, with growing demand for
movie-and-game-ready mobile displays, and with high-definition video and
flat-panel televisions just beginning long, global market runs, Corning’s
future glitters like Steuben glass.
Driven
by displays that range from cell phones to notebook computers and desktop
monitors to televisions, global demand for LCD glass is expected to swell from
800 million square feet last year to 1,400 million square feet in 2007, with
Corning hoping to outgrow the total market. Most notable is the anticipated
ascent of LCD television from 5 percent in 2004 and 11 percent in 2005 to 20
percent this year and 30 percent next with average screen size reaching 27
inches.
At
which point we’ll have only just begun. Lagging Japan’s expected 77 percent
penetration of the TV market will be western Europe’s 49 percent, North
America’s 36 percent, and the rest of world’s 10 percent. Creating only a small
portion of today’s demand, the Chinese LCD market alone is expected to equal
North America’s by 2009. For Corning, LCD glass could well repeat the 30-plus
year run of cathode ray tubes (CRTs).
But what’s that rumble from Wall Street? It’s the sound
of investors ignoring emerging paradigms and stampeding away from Corning.
Are these false alarms? Should you run with the herd or is the time to board the
great glass boat? Read the complete August issue of the Gilder
Technology Report by logging in with your subscriber at http://www.gildertech.com/.
|
Gilder/Forbes
TELECOSM Conference |
Friday
Feature / Assuring
Quality of Experience for IPTV
Would “Net Neutrality” Screw
Up IPTV?:
The year 2006 marks a time in which the IP television (IPTV) market is moving
into the critical second phase of large-scale commercial deployments across
many regions. This may vary between carriers and geographies, but as a whole,
service assurance and quality of experience
(QOE) largely define this
evolution. Each phase is tightly coupled with ongoing underlying technology
evolution, content acquisition, and scaling the overall number of IP video
subscribers.
• Phase I: Prove
technical viability of technology, architecture, and basic service delivery to
match existing cable and satellite TV service offerings.
• Phase II: Deliver
service assurance and QOE guarantees, increase personalization, and deliver any
service, any time, in an effort to ensure and grow take rate.
• Phase III: Increase
service differentiation and integration to achieve blended services and
interactive TV on a large scale.
Assuring QOE for IPTV is
rapidly becoming a top priority among vendors and service providers as the IPTV
market evolves into Phase II, in which services are commercially deployed on a
meaningful scale. IPTV is about the television business, and offering a
differentiating and compelling value proposition is a key to success. In order
for service providers to achieve target video take rates, the QOE of IPTV must
meet and exceed the services cable and satellite providers are currently
providing. Large and small service providers are either planning for or putting
the technology in place to meet the requirements surrounding service assurance
and QOE.
There are many factors
influencing the challenge of achieving a high QOE in IPTV deployments.
The mix of broadcast TV
versus video on demand (VOD), network-based personal video recorder
(nPVR), and other unicast video services is
relatively unpredictable, which affects the ratio of multicast and unicast
network traffic, and ultimately the design of the network architecture. The
addition of high-definition (HD) content to the network drives greater
bandwidth requirements and the need to assure the continuous availability of
that bandwidth for the purpose of achieving flawless QOE. VOD usage patterns,
as well as the proliferation of set-top boxes (STBs) and other appliances in
the home, will dictate the optimal location of content placement in the
network, which also has an effect on traffic patterns and bandwidth needs.
These issues should and will be transparent
to the subscriber, who is simply expecting an always-on service offering. To
that end, providing such QOE isn't necessarily simple, but it's a critical
factor for the success of IPTV. It also is achievable with the right technology
and network architecture as a foundation.
Intelligent network design,
with an emphasis on avoiding congestion, is essential to address QOE issues
before they arise. Peak service concurrency rates, based on a number of
assumptions and real-world scenarios, will impact the network differently in
the first mile than in the second, third, or fourth (e.g. as part of a
congestion-avoidance and admission-control strategy). Blindly throwing
bandwidth at the problem to overprovision the network is prohibitively
expensive, so telecom equipment providers are proposing new and smarter means
to right-size network capacity by gaining a better understanding of traffic
patterns and usage trends.
The second phase of the IPTV
market will drive new network requirements that must be addressed by
industry-leading vendors in next-generation equipment …
Read
the complete Heavy Reading white paper:
http://downloads.lightreading.com/wplib/heavyreading/IPTV_QOE.pdf
NOTE: This paper examines the critical challenges, required technology and
features, and optimized network architecture necessary to achieve these goals.
|
A N N O U N C I N G : The
Gildertech Blog |
Friday Blogger Bonus / Friendly Debate with Supply-Side Titan
Bret Swanson (8/24/06): This morning Dr. Arthur Laffer continues his break with
most of the other classical/supply-side economists. Dr. Laffer says inflation
is nowhere in sight and the Fed is doing a "stellar" job. We can all
agree with Dr. Laffer that growth does not cause inflation, the Philips Curve
is (or should be) dead, and that economic growth today is stronger than most
observers believe. Dr. Laffer is a national hero, who helped launch the U.S. to
world economic leadership and, maybe more importantly, exported his low-tax
ideas to a world in desperate need of capitalism. We are all benefiting from
this global transformation that he and his mentor Robert Mundell envisioned. We
continue to be somewhat flummoxed, however, over Dr. Laffer's views on monetary
policy, which seem to contradict many of his earlier teachings.
Check Out Discovery Institute’s Disco-Tech Blog:
http://www.disco-tech.org/2006/08/friendly_debate_with_supplysid.html
|
Capturing
impressive long-term gains, Gilder’s tech portfolio is up 232% Subscribe to Gilder Technology Report and Get the
Next Tech Winner! |
Readings /
Are the Terrorists Winning?
http://blogs.forbes.com/digitalrules/
Your Digital Wallet
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17355&ch=infotech
Subsidy
Economics 101
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6635
Safer
Lithium-Ion Batteries
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17362&ch=biztech
Samsung
Guns For Apple’s iPod
http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=18105&hed=Samsung%20Guns%20for%20Apple%20iPod
Cisco
Grabs Arroyo For $92Million
http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=18082&hed=Cisco%20Grabs%20Arroyo%20for%20$92M
How
To Talk Like An Iraqi
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17350&ch=infotech
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