________________________________________________
- THE FRIDAY LETTER -
(emailed weekly, from Gilder Publishing,
for friends and subscribers)
__________________________________________________
| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 263.0/September 8, 2006
SIGN-UP A FRIEND FOR FREE!
HEADLINES:
- The
Week / The Semiconductor Stocks’ Wall of Worry
- Friday
Feature / Escape the Software
Development Paradigm Trap
- Friday
Blogger Bonus / George Gilder on Qualcomm
- Readings /
The
Week / The
Semiconductor Stocks’ Wall of Worry
Excerpted from posts to the Gilder Technology Report subscriber-only
message board.
GTR Subscriber (9/8/06): I believe it would be a worthwhile exercise to list
the potential problems that could befall EZchip and prevent its success.
That way, we can identify the problems if and when they creep up.
For example: Who are EZ’s likely competitors? Could they siphon off some of the
sizzle?
George Gilder (9/8/06): These are questions creating a wall of worry
that all semiconductor stocks must climb.
EZ's chief rivals are Cisco, Juniper, and an array of other OEMs
that have the capacity to design their own network processors or hone their own
ASICs (application-specific integrated circuits) to gain a proprietary
advantage. Other competitors include Broadcom, Bay, Wintegra
(moving up), Greenfield Networks (gaining programmability), Cavium,
Raza Microelectronics, AMCC, Texas Instruments (adapting
DSPs), Marvell, Agere, Freescale, Xilinx, Altera
(using field-programmable devices) and there are more--possibly NetLogic.
The horizon is filling with communications processors and cell processors (IBM-Sony)
of various kinds.
However, EZchip is the most focused and agile and cost effective of the bunch.
And, once you are designed into a network node, it entails a costly redesign,
with new code, to install other processors. So I am still an EZchip (LNOP)
enthusiast …
To read the complete post
and others by George Gilder and the Gilder editors and subscribers, log on to http://www.gildertech.com/ with your
subscriber ID today.
__________________________________
Gilder/Forbes TELECOSM 2006
October 4 - October 6
The
Resort at Squaw Creek | Lake Tahoe, CA
Featuring:
|
Charlie Burger, Gilder Technology
Report Tod Cohen, VP and Deputy General Counsel, eBay Alex Dickinson, President and
CEO, Luxtera Brendan Dixon, Computational Biologist, Biologic Institute Steve Forbes, Editor in Chief, Forbes magazine Eli Fructer, President and CEO, EZchip Frank Galuppo, Chief Executive Officer, Amedia Networks Apostolos Gerasoulis, Co-Inventor, Ask.com Monte Hancock, Chief Cognitive Research Scientist, Essex Corp Phil Hester, CTO, Advanced
Micro Devices Peter Huber, Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute for
Policy Research; Co-founder, Digital Power Capital Omar Javaid, Senior Director, MediaFLO, Qualcomm Kevin Kahn, Director, Communications Laboratory, Intel Rich Karlgaard,Publisher, Forbes magazine Andy Kessler, The End of Medicine:
How Silicon Valley (And Naked Mice) Will Reboot Your Doctor Alan Klapmeier, Founder, Cirrus Design Susan Kunz, President and Co-founder, Solidware Fred Leonberger, Principal, EOvation Technologies |
Paul McWilliams, NextInning Technology
Research Robert Mundell, Economics
Nobel Laureate Lane Patterson, Chief Technologist, Equinix Vern Raburn, President and CEO, Eclipse Aviation Justin Rattner, CTO, Intel Jerry Rawls, Chairman, President and CEO, Finisar Atiq Raza, Chairman and CEO, Raza Microelectronics Michael Ricci, Senior VP, Optical Comm. Group, JDSU Arthur Robinson, Professor of Chemistry; Founder, Oregon Institute of
Science and Medicine John Rutledge, Global
Economist, Rutledge Capital; Forbes.com columnist; Fox News' Forbes
on Fox and Cavuto
on Business; CNBC's Squawk
Box commentator Larry Sweet, Pres., Euclid Transformational Automation Nick Tredennick, Editor, Gilder
Technology Report Fred Weber, President and CEO, MetaRAM |
REGISTER BY OCTOBER 3 TO SAVE OVER $500
Register
BEFORE 10/2/06 to SAVE BIG
__________________________________
Friday Feature
/ Escape
the Software Development Paradigm Trap
When I'm reading
a magazine from the software or electronics industry, I almost always run into
an article hammering on the subject of software quality. The topic, which
warrants plenty of hammering, is usually illustrated with abundant examples of
the poor-quality software that irritates our everyday lives. These articles
either focus on the negatives (horror stories or why software development is so
stinkin' hard) or issue pleas for development teams to use more "best
practices" to mitigate some of the challenges. But through it all we tend
to accept that software development will always be hard, that code will always
be buggy, and that the very best to which we can aspire is some statistical
reduction in how far we fall short of success.
I
don't buy it.
I
don't think that software development has to be such a quality disaster.
Software development could be far more disciplined, manageable, and credible
than it is today…
Read Mark Bereit’s Complete Article:
http://www.embedded.com/columns/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=186700597
***Join us on Oct. 6 for the “Combinatorial
Software: Applying Silicon Design Technology
to Produce Fail-safe, Modular Software” panel at Gilder/Forbes
Telecosm 2006. ***
Details: http://www.gildertech.com/public/Telecosm2006/Agenda.htm
|
A N N O U N C I N G : The
Gildertech Blog |
Friday Blogger Bonus /
George Gilder (9/5/06): Qualcomm Kaput?
While I was away, wireless analyst Andy Seybold (www.outlook4mobility.com) and a chorus of others
propagated the conclusion that wireless has entered a new era. Technology
doesn't matter any more. It's all software and content. Although Seybold does
not say it, the implication is that the industry is moving beyond Qualcomm's
(QCOM) strengths. Texas Instruments (TXN) tout Jim Faulkner opined that
the Qualcomm has even lost its technical edge. Others presented indications
that "CDMA" (code-division multiple access) has fallen hopelessly
behind "GSM" (global system for mobile) in the "Second
World," from India to Brazil. Widespread was the view that with Sprint
Nextel (S) and Korea turning toward WiMax (worldwide interoperability for
microwave access), Intel (INTC) technology was usurping 3G and obviating
much of the Qualcomm edge for future generations.
Qualcomm
has already gained back a lot of its losses. Although GSM retains some 80
percent of the global market in units and may still be making gains at the low
end, GSM still entails WCDMA (wideband-CDMA) for the next generation. Wherever
you look for the next GSM generation, Qualcomm is all over it. That's why Q's
rivals are afraid of the future and want to perpetuate their current Indian
summer with retarded technologies and FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) suits
at the International Trade Commission.
As
new Qualcomm strategic chief Jeff Belk told me, he reread his old "Why
Max?" paper and it rang truer than ever …
Read George’s Complete Qualcomm Blog on the GilderTech Blog Page:
http://blog.gildertech.com/
RELATED READING
Texas
Instruments Racing To Develop Chips For Cell Phone TV Recorders
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17477
__________________________________
Readings /
Organizing The Web: Del.icio.us
http://www.technologyreview.com/TR35/TR35.aspx?TRID=432
Semi
Industry’s Next Killer App
http://www.edn.com/article/CA6369630.html?partner=enews&nid=2019&rid=2052959400
The
Chip That Changed The World
http://www.edn.com/article/CA6364229.html
What
Intel’s Layoff Means For Chip Design
http://www.edn.com/blog/1690000169/post/960004496.html
Fastest
Supercomputer To Be Built
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/5322704.stm
Time
To Bulk Up On Accomplishments
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YjM0MmVhMzUwNjBjOWVmMzQ2YjY4NTE4NmExNDhmOGE=
Europe
Rising?
http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=090806B
___________________________________________
SIGN-UP
A FRIEND FOR FREE!
Click here to add a friend to our Friday Letter mailing
list.
_______________________________________________
FRIDAY LETTER STAFF
Editor: Mary Collins / mcollins@gilder.com
Research: Sandy Fleischmann / sfleischmann@gilder.com
ADVERTISING INFORMATION
The Friday Letter is mailed each week to more than 150,000-plus
subscribers and friends of Gilder Publishing, including industry leaders,
financial professionals and individual investors. For information about
advertising, contact Mary Collins at mcollins@gilder.com.
PLEASE NOTE: The appearance of an advertisement in the Friday Letter
does not indicate an endorsement for the product and/or service by George
Gilder, Gilder Publishing LLC, or the Friday Letter staff.
FEEDBACK AND PROBLEMS
For technical problems, or to send letters to the editor, please
e-mail info@gilder.com.
MAILING ADDRESS
Gilder Publishing, LLC
ATTN: Friday Letter
291A Main Street
Great Barrington, MA 01230
_______________________________________________
The Friday Letter is published weekly for subscribers and
friends of Gilder Publishing. If someone you know would enjoy it, please feel
free to forward a copy.
Gilder Publishing makes the Friday Letter available for free. To
help defray some of the costs of producing this information on a weekly basis,
we will from time to time be sending you offers from companies we think you'll
be interested in. These offers will not come more than once a week. If you do
not wish to receive this related information, please opt out of this process at
the link below and we will not share your name with companies outside of Gilder
Publishing.
http://www.gilder.com/unsubscribe/specialproducts.php
To SUBSCRIBE please visit http://www.gilder.com/
To UNSUBSCRIBE please go to http://www.gilder.com/fridayletter/unsubscribe.php
Trouble subscribing or unsubscribing?
Email info@gilder.com
_______________________________________________
Copyright 2006 Gilder Publishing LLC