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- THE FRIDAY LETTER -
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for friends and subscribers)
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| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 355.0/September
12, 2008
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HEADLINES:
- The Week / George Gilder on EZCH, NETL, CAVM, NETL & MLNX
- Friday Feature / Beyond Oil:
Transforming Transportation
- Friday Blogger Bonus / Moving from Petabytes to
Zettabytes
- Readings /
The
Week /
EZCH, NETL, CAVM, NETL & MLNX
Gilder Telecosm Forum Member (9/9/08):
EZchip (EZCH) is down today. I was hoping
we'd be getting a move up in anticipation of Eli Fruchter’s Jefferies
Technology Conference presentation tomorrow.
GEORGE GILDER, Gilder Telecosm Forum (9/11/08): I spent four hours with Eli
Fruchter yesterday, and after denying at length that he was a leading Israeli
entrepreneur, he told me the story of his entrepreneurial feats and fully
justified his prominence in a book that will be published before the end of the
year. (I'm writing a book about Israeli entrepreneurs and their world leading
technology.)
The Jefferies presentation confirmed the story: As the products containing
the NP3c and NP4 enter the market, they will likely generate hundreds of
millions of dollars of revenue. (I don't have my notes at hand, so I cannot be
more specific, but Fruchter was more detailed, in response to Jefferies analyst
Adam Benjamin and others.) The NPA is also on track, gaining design wins at an
impressive pace, while the NPs also continue to rack up new slots.
Other impressive presentations at Jefferies came from Mellanox
Technologies (MLNX), as a key player in the cloud computing paradigm,
combining Infiniband and 10 gigabit Ethernet and fiber channel interconnect
capabilities with microseconds of latency (rather than milliseconds like
current technologies), which are needed for the virtualization technologies
that are taking over; Ron Jankov of NetLogic (NETL) confirmed their
ascendant role in the paradigm, Cavium (CAVM) continued as the multicore
champion for security applications, and Synaptics (SYNA), seems to be
gaining ground rapidly in mobile applications.
In general these stocks are down in expectation of general problems in the
economy and its ability to finance high technology. I believe they will thrive.
Read more posts by George Gilder
and the Gilder Telecosm Forum members, logon with you subscriber password at www.Gildertech.com
today.
More from the Jefferies September 10 event:
http://www.jefferies.com/cositemgr.pl/html/OurFirm/ConferencesEvents/upcoming/20080910Technology.shtml
|
The Gilder Telecosm Forum To
learn how to join this powerful network of talented, tech-savvy investors and
thinkers online daily to debate, discuss, and decode new and emerging
technologies and share valuable and actionable investment advice, visit www.Gildertech.com today. |
Friday Feature / Beyond Oil: Transforming Transportation
Bruce Agnew,
reporting on the “Beyond Oil” Conference (9/10/08): A crowd of 500 key influencers from the private sector,
government, academia and the media filled Microsoft's large meeting facility in
Redmond for the Sept. 4-5 conference organized by Discovery Institute's
Cascadia Center, "Beyond Oil: Transforming Transportation." Gripping presentations by
former CIA Director James Woolsey, electric car systems entrepreneur Shai
Agassi of Better Place, and Microsoft's sustainability guru Rob Bernard - plus
groundbreaking vehicles on display, dozens of other great speakers and several
high-level technical workshops - built a heady buzz and energized networking.
Among the
take-aways:
- U.S. national
security is badly compromised by our dependence on foreign oil - we need to
develop an even greater sense of urgency around breaking the habit.
- Electricity and the
second-generation bio-fuels now under development will have the ability to
revolutionize transportation. Renewable energy sources must be fostered to make
sure clean electric transportation can become a reality nationwide. Even so,
electric engines represent an immediate improvement in tailpipe emissions.
- Cleaner, greener
vehicles will still need infrastructure. A new transportation funding paradigm
for roadway, bridge and transit projects is emerging, as the gas tax falls into
permanent decline. More of the slack will be taken up, over time, through
tolling revenue from variably-priced high occupancy and toll (HOT) lanes. These
are free to multi-passenger vehicles and transit, and available to solo drivers
for a cost, which varies according to real-time congestion.
- As vehicle engine technology advances, so will traffic
navigational tools and alternative transport strategies. Among large employers,
Microsoft leads the way with innovations including its WiFi-equipped
"Connector" commuter bus and van service for employees. The company's
"LiveMaps" technology illustrates how real-time road data can be
transmitted to help choose optimal commuting windows. Meanwhile, a host of
other technology companies are working on initiatives which before too long
will allow every new car to become a moving computer, transmitting and
receiving roadway data to manage the challenge of metro region mobility.
Check
out the “Beyond Oil” speaker PowerPoints:
http://www.discovery.org/scripts/viewDB/index.php?command=view&id=351&program=Cascadia&isEvent=true
View Microsoft Chief Environmental Strategist Rob Bernard’s talk, “The Road
Ahead," presented at the "Beyond Oil: Transforming
Transportation" conference in Redmond, Wash. http://www.discovery.org/a/7071
__________________________________________
Friday Blogger Bonus / Moving from
Petabytes to Zettabytes
Hance Haney, disco-tech blog (9/8/08): From an interview by Peter Day, of BBC Radio
4’s “In Business,” who notes that "nearly everything that George Gilder
has been predicting about communications is now in the process of coming
true," with George Gilder:
George Gilder: ... you have video conferencing widely
used and suddenly you move from petabytes to zettabytes … two human eyes do
more image processing than all the supercomputers in the world put together.
Peter Day: What? Now? Today?
Gilder: Now. Today.
Day: No wonder it’s so difficult to get to a video
conferencing that’s convincing.
Gilder: That is true. Anya Hurlbert Ridley says that
vision is not a sense, it’s an intelligence. And so, in understanding vision,
it’s not enough to reproduce the biology and biochemistry of the retina – or
even the circuitry of the retina -- it’s the whole enigma of consciousness that
is engaged in understanding vision, and so the move of the network to a global
vision system does entail some sort of deeper and richer intelligence than is
comprehended by many people who try to mechanically reproduce various vision
technologies.
Day: So we need an exaflood, or more than an
exaflood…
Gilder: We’ve got an exaflood – we’ve got that now –
Day: So we need to build for…
Gilder: Zettaflood, I guess.
Day: George Gilder predicting an intensitity of
Internet use we can only marvel at, at the moment.
More on the Exaflood Around the World
http://blog.pff.org/archives/2008/09/exaflood_around.html
__________________________________________
Readings /
Physicists Cheer Successful Test of Large Hadron Collider
http://www.star-telegram.com/279/story/900466.html
Lessons from a Road Warrior
http://rutledgecapital.com/rutledgeblog/2008/09/10/new-book-lessons-from-a-road-warrior/
Lehman
Races to Find a Buyer
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122122951987228067.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
The
World’s Biggest Experiment
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/editors/22125/
Beyond
Silicon’s Elemental Logic
http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/sep08/6634
China’sWeb
Culture Goes Unchecked
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122118468103726299.html?mod=2_1571_leftbox
__________________________________________
Friday Letter Editor: Mary Collins George / mcollins@gilder.com
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