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| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 264.0/September 15, 2006
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HEADLINES:
- The
Week / Telecosmic Time Travel
- Friday
Feature / The
Stealth Job Boom
- Friday
Blogger Bonus / Rutledge: Telecom and Growth
- Readings /
The
Week /
Telecosmic Time Travel
Excerpted from the August 2006 issue of the Gilder Technology Report.
George Gilder: Ever since
Gilder/Forbes Telecosm number 9, we’ve been pumped up about our 10th Annual Telecosm Gala.
Forget the GTR; we are party animals at heart, learning technology
osmotically, as we carouse with the philosopher-techies gathering among all the
widescreen TVs in the Bullwacker’s Lounge at the Resort at Squaw Creek.
Ten years ago, in the heat of Palm Springs, where we
held our first Telecosm with Forbes. Qualcomm (QCOM)
was our top choice, with its venerable co-founder Andrew Viterbi our chosen
speaker, and I assumed that soon enough it would combine with Globalstar, which
was represented in Palm Springs by chief architect Ming Louie, in a new
planetary empire of code division multiple access (CDMA). But Irwin Jacobs of
Qualcomm and Bernie Schwartz of Loral
could never get together on price and Qualcomm decided it did not need a retail
CDMA satellite backup. It shunned Globalstar and hired Ming Louie to run
Qualcomm’s marketing in China. That’s why a decade later Verizon (VZ) and Sprint Nextel (S)
service still are pocked with deadspots and the inferior GSM (global system for
mobile) is the only truly global system. Also at Palm Springs, Texas Instruments (TXN) was showing off their microelectronic
machines (MEMS) based digital light processing technology on all our conference
screens. It is flourishing today but it has been a long climb. John Doerr
celebrated the stunning creation of value by the PC industry, Mary Meeker touted
the opportunities on the net, and Michael Milken explained the failure of stock
market values to address the worth of intellectual capital. But none of these
heraldic alerts intimated the likelihood of a crash four years hence.
Also on board for
Telecosm 1997 was Marc Andreessen, letting Microsoft’s (MSFT) Mark
Ryland crush him in a debate on Java. (We were bailed out by the now notorious
Patrick Naughton, then a sagely articulate Java manager at Sun, who stood up in
the audience and gave a rebuttal.) Scott McNealy was also in Palm Springs,
hilariously castigating Microsoft without necessarily convincing anyone that Sun (SUNW) could prevail. Fresh from Sun, Eric Schmidt described the road
ahead for Novell (NOVL) in an age of the hollowing out of
computers. Peter Cochrane of British Telecom discoursed on time travel through
fiber technology, David Patterson, Leonard Kleinrock, and Schmidt held a summit
conference on the future of computer architecture, and Bob Metcalfe laid down
the law and the prophets and denounced Internet access over dialup modems. (“It
is stupid and the modems know it’s stupid; you can tell by the way they hiss
and squeal every time they are made to do it.”)
Attending Telecosm Ten, October 4 – 6 in Lake Tahoe,
will be an experience in time travel. You will find many of the same guys still
on the runway ready for you to get on board for a takeoff that now is underway
…
To read the entire August
issue of the Gilder Technology Report, including in depth updates on
Zoran (ZRAN), Sigma
Designs (SIGM), Synaptics (SYNA), Ikanos (IKAN), and
EZchip (LNOP), log on to http://www.gildertech.com/ with your subscriber ID today.
__________________________________
Gilder/Forbes TELECOSM 2006
October 4 - 6 | The
Resort at Squaw Creek | Lake Tahoe
ATTENTION TELECOSM 2006 ATTENDEES: Just two weeks left until
Telecosm 2006. Prepare yourself for an intense
three-day examination of the ascending
technologies with the potential to disrupt our lives, business decisions, and
investment portfolios.
|
Charlie Burger, Analyst, Gilder Technology Report Tod Cohen, VP and Deputy General Counsel, eBay Alex Dickinson, President and CEO, Luxtera Brendan Dixon, Computational Biologist, Biologic
Institute Steve Forbes, Editor in Chief, Forbes magazine Eli Fructer, President and CEO, EZchip Frank Galuppo, Chief Executive Officer, Amedia Networks Apostolos Gerasoulis, Co-Inventor, Ask.com Monte Hancock, Chief Cognitive Research Scientist, Essex Phil Hester, CTO, Advanced Micro Devices Peter Huber, Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute for Policy
Research; Co-founder, Digital Power Capital Omar Javaid, Senior Director, MediaFLO, Qualcomm Kevin Kahn, Director, Communications Laboratory, Intel Rich Karlgaard,Publisher, Forbes magazine Alan Klapmeier, Founder, Cirrus Design Susan Kunz, President and Co-founder, Solidware |
Paul McWilliams, NextInning Technology Research Robert Mundell, Economics Nobel Laureate Lane Patterson, Chief Technologist, Equinix Vern Raburn, President and CEO, Eclipse Aviation Justin Rattner, CTO, Intel Jerry Rawls, Chairman, President and CEO, Finisar Atiq Raza, Chairman and CEO, Raza
Microelectronics Michael Ricci, Senior VP, Optical Comm. Group, JDSU Arthur Robinson, Professor of Chemistry; Founder, Oregon Institute of
Science and Medicine John Rutledge, Global Economist,
Rutledge Capital; Forbes.com; Fox News' Forbes on
Fox contributor Larry Sweet, President, Euclid Nick Tredennick, Editor, Gilder
Technology Report Fred Weber, President and CEO, MetaRAM |
NOTE: Scheduled debates on Net Neutrality, patent reform,
regulation, “the end of medicine,” whether Google can be stopped, the death of
the dream of ALL-optical network, and the politics of science and
economics promise to be just a few of the highlights.
REGISTER BY OCTOBER 3 TO SAVE OVER $500
Register BEFORE 10/2/06 to SAVE BIG
__________________________________
Friday Feature
/ The Stealth Job Boom
Ashby Foote, GTR Subscriber and President
Vector Money Management (9/14/06):
BULLETIN: If you have one of the 3.3 million jobs the Labor Department can’t
explain please contact Secretary Elaine Chao at www.dol.gov. That’s right: 3.3
million new jobs is the cumulative difference between the Labor Department’s
two ongoing surveys (payroll and household) since the current economic
expansion began in November 2001.
Some background: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is tasked to
provide a monthly snapshot of the U.S. employment situation. This is no easy task when one considers the
wide spectrum of American enterprises, from mom & pops to global
conglomerates and how they have been franchised, outsourced, flex-timed, people
leased, tele-commuted and WiFi-ed over the past decade. To accomplish this
undertaking the BLS uses two monthly sample surveys conducted by the U.S.
Census Bureau. For the top down view,
160,000 businesses and government agencies are contacted for the Current
Employment Statistics (CES), referred to as the payroll or establishment
survey. This is the “headline”
number and the survey focused on by the press and the financial markets. For the bottom up perspective, 60,000
households are contacted for the Current Population Survey (CPS), referred to
as the household survey. The BLS
makes adjustments and population control revisions to the surveys to facilitate
apples and apples comparisons but discrepancies invariably arise. This comment comes from a February 2006 BLS
study: “Although many theories about the discrepancies have been put forth,
complete explanations have never been found for any of the divergences, despite
a significant amount of research by the BLS and by outside analysts.”
A complete explanation may not be possible but a persistent
and widening gap that has now reached 3.3 million (7.9 million versus 4.6
million) and represents 42% of jobs created during this recovery surely
deserves exploration for any under appreciated cause and effect. One is reminded of the famous retort in the
midst of the 1980’s boom, “If this is voodoo economics, send more witch
doctors”.
One of the most insightful commentators on change at work in the
economy is Chris Anderson, editor of Wired magazine and author of a
brilliant new book, “The Long Tail.” He
cites three forces that are transforming the economy and creating vast new
opportunities at the grass roots for small and boutique businesses. Force 1: the democratization of the tools of
production – the obvious example is the PC as a tool for publishing and
multi-media. Force 2: the
democratization of the tools of distribution – the combination of the PC and
the Internet makes everyone a distributor.
Force 3:connecting supply and demand – search, filters and feedback
loops like that found on Google, iTunes, Amazon and Netflix help niche content
find interested buyers and users.
Read
Ashby Complete Article:
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OTk0YzMzYzI3YWFkYmE5MzdhN2I5ODIxZjY0MWQ2MTk
To read comments on Ashby’s article posted by other GTR subscribers,
log on to http://www.gildertech.com/
with your subscriber ID today.
|
Capturing
impressive long-term gains, Gilder’s tech portfolio is up 280% Subscribe to Gilder Technology Report and Get
the Next Tech Winner! |
Friday Blogger Bonus / Telecom and Growth
John Rutledge (Beijing,
9/12/06): After spending the last week in China, I can tell you
that the Chinese government understands the only way to deliver high growth and
increase living standards without further fouling the air and running out of
energy is to focus on IT, communications, and the financial service sector. The
Chinese are putting a full court press on innovation and entrepreneurship by
aggressively investing in tech education and pursuing policies to attract
foreign capital to relocate to China--especially such as R&D operations.
What are we doing? Congress has gotten itself twisted up in its shorts over
non-issues like network neutrality and who gets to tap into the bloated
universal service fund, and too concerned with lobby groups (aka campaign
funding) to risk passing the communications regulations overhaul the U.S. needs
to drive investment and productivity.
Check out Rutledge’s blog:
http://www.rutledgeblog.com/
ATTENTION: Hear John Rutledge speak Friday Oct. 6 at Gilder/Forbes
Telecosm 2006. See http://telecosmconference.com/ for details.
|
A N N O U N C I N G : The
Gildertech Blog |
Readings /
The Online Supernova: 15 Years Of The World Wide Web
http://www.informationweek.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=193000564
Despite
PC Drama, New Battery Tech Still Years Away
http://www.informationweek.com/research/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=IQDWS1XZ2ZHZEQSNDLPSKH0CJUNN2JVN?articleID=193000555
Swanson:
Paulson vs Paulson
http://www.disco-tech.org/
Apple
Attacks Digital Living Room
http://redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=18495&hed=Apple%20Intros%20Set-Top%20Box
The
Phoenix Will Rise
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NGViYzVkMzk0NjRjY2MxYzdkZGYwOTgzNTIxMWViZWU=
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