― THE FRIDAY LETTER ―
(e-mailed weekly, from Gilder Publishing,
for friends and subscribers)
| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 218.0/September 16, 2005
SIGN-UP A FRIEND FOR FREE!
Click here to add a friend to our Friday Letter mailing list
▪ The Week / GTR Message Board: Excerpts & Highlights
▪ Friday Feature /
Hey, Maybe the
Singularity Really IS Near
▪ Friday Bonus / FCC To Probe Katrina Telecom Failures
▪ Readings /
GILDER/FORBES TELECOSM 2005: The Singularity is Here
September 26 – 28 | The Resort at Squaw Creek, Lake Tahoe
The Week / Sigma, Amedia, GigaBeam, and more …
The following are excerpts from the Gilder Technology Report’s subscriber message board.
GTR Subscriber (9/13/05): I think [Next Inning Technology editor] McWilliams underestimated Sigma's (SIGM) chances (a very small company) as they went up against the big boys (Broadcom [BRCM] and STMicroelectronics [STM]).
George Gilder (9/13/05): I am off to the West Coast, where I hope to interview the Sigma (SIGM) people. In essense, they make "Mediaprocessors" of the sort I have been touting for ten years, since I wrote an article in Forbes ASAP about a premature effort by John Moussouris to coin these chips in gold (literally gold wires) to attain the needed speeds. Mediaprocessors have to function orders of magnitude faster than the flows that they handle. To manage and decode a 19 Mbps HDTV stream, for example, with all the motion estimation and compensation and bloc filtering and color rendering, takes some 300 giga-ops per second and memory bandwidth of some 500 giga-ops. In putting all the various video standards on one chip, Sigma has a chance to achieve a real edge against Broadcom et al. But it will be a bitter fight.
Next Inning editor, Paul McWilliams (9/13/05): It seems as though there are those who don't fully understand my position on SIGM. I think there is time for both short-term profits and to reevaluate the competitive situation when these profits materialize (I think somewhere in the low to mid-teens). It's very important for investors to go into a stock like SIGM with this sort of opinion locked very securely in their mind. Investors who don't do this might not recognize (believe) a competitive threat and therefore get "blindsided." Believe me, I know this from experience.
The good news here is that SIGM has enough cult following that will probably be slow to react to changes in competitive threats. This will probably give investors who sense such threats more time than usual to adjust to them. The bad news is I'm not sure SIGM management will recognize the threats when/if (I really think we could leave this as "when") they occur. There's something about SIGM management that leads me to believe they are overconfident, but maybe it's me that doesn't see they have reason to be so. Something I think that's important to remember with SIGM is that we're dealing with a company that is trading for only 26% above the 1990 IPO price - until very recently, it was below this IPO price. In other words, we've seen 15 years of vision and no returned shareholder value. Again, I've learned the hard way (several times) that companies like this that have gone through several (many) cycles of "we're almost there" need to be watched carefully and it's usually best to have an exit strategy that includes multiple sell points on the way up even when things continue to look great. I hope this clears up some confusion.
Subscriber Question (9/16/05): Other than World Wide Packets being privately held, how does this company differ from Amedia (AANI.OB)?
GTR’s Charlie Burger (9/16/05): World Wide Packets is Amedia’s chief competitor. I believe there is very little difference in the Ethernet over fiber/copper products offered by each company for access networks. Both can do 100 Mbps symmetrical and at the right distance eliminate all components between the CO and residence in FTTP architectures. As George Gilder has pointed out, the main emphasis is fiber, and VDSL is a stopgap for immediate revenues and a bridge to FTTP. There are a number of VDSL competitors out there doing 100 Mbps. (To read more about the company differences, logon to the Telecosm Lounge at http://www.gildertech.com/.)
Subscriber Question (9/15/05): I'm in Unova (UNA). Do you know if [the Impinj news] has negative implications for their Intermec division?
GTR’s Bret Swanson (9/16/05): I think Intermec (UNA), which makes modules and systems, is probably a beneficiary of Impinj's base RFID technology, though Impinj also has a new line of RFID readers and others are also using Impinj's tag chips. I don't see Intermec on Impinj's customer list yet, but they are in Everett, WA, close to Impinj in Seattle, so I'm sure they are aware of what Chris Diorio and Dr. Mead have brewing. I see both companies announced new RFID certifications today …
Subscriber Question (9/15/05): What are your thoughts on Gigabeam or high-frequency, wireless point-to-point in general?
GTR’s Charlie Burger (9/16/05): Much more promising than Terabeam, I believe. GigaBeam president/CTO Doug Lockie visited us several weeks ago. Fascinating … Lockie will also be coming to Telecosm.
To read more posts by George Gilder and GTR editors and subscribers, log on to the Telecosm Lounge at http://www.gildertech.com/ today.
THE TECH PORTFOLIO THAT GAINED
155.8% IN THE LAST 3 YEARS …
Friday Feature / Hey, Maybe the Singularity Really IS Near
Ray Kurzweil's book, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology comes out next week. And I suspect that a lot of people wonder if things will really happen as fast as Kurzweil suggests. But, as I look at the news reports, I see quite a few signs that we're living in a future that not long ago would have looked science fictional. Take, for example, this report: Miracle Mouse Can Grow Back Limbs (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1754008,00.html).
Limb regeneration, and custom-grown organs! Sounds good to me. Bring it on!
Meanwhile, Cambridge University just held the second conference on scientifically engineered negligible senescence, where people discussed ways of slowing, halting, or even reversing the aging process.
Read the Complete Glenn Harlan Reynolds Article: http://www.techcentralstation.com/091405C.html
The Singularity Is Near
Kurzweil: The Instapundit Interview
TELECOSM AFTER HOURS
Friday Bonus / FCC To Probe Katrina Telecom Failures
The Federal Communications Commission will meet in Atlanta on Thursday (Sept. 15) to determine how telecommunications networks collapsed in the aftermath of Hurricance Katrina and to find ways to prevent future failures.
agency said it will empanel a broad range of telecom industry executives,
communications workers, broadcasters and industry groups during its monthly
meeting in the Georgia state capital. The FCC seldom holds monthly open
meetings outside of Washington.
Read the Complete Article: http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=170703346
New Lines of Communication
Katrina Lesson: Need For Unified Emergency Radio System
WiMax Helps Out In Katrina Recovery
A China Policy In America's Interest
China’s Economy Merges with the U.S. in Countless Ways
Bush Requests More Aid Funding
A “Victory” Over Wasteful
Kudlow’s Money Politics
Tax Cuts Are Katrina Relief
$4.2 Billion Raised By Google
In 2nd Offer
Philadelphia Experiment A Cautionary Tale on WiFi
Skype Hunt: How VCs Struck Gold In Europe
Semico Raises IC Forecast For
Samsung Reportedly Seeks To
Cut LCD Investment
SIGN-UP A FRIEND FOR FREE!
Click here to add a friend to our Friday Letter mailing list.
FRIDAY LETTER STAFF
Editor: Mary Collins / firstname.lastname@example.org
Research: Sandy Fleischmann / email@example.com
Friday Letter is mailed each week to more than 150,000-plus subscribers and
friends of Gilder Publishing, including industry leaders, financial
professionals and individual investors. For information about advertising,
contact Mary Collins at firstname.lastname@example.org
PLEASE NOTE: The appearance of an advertisement in the Friday Letter does not indicate an endorsement for the product and/or service by George Gilder, Gilder Publishing LLC, or the Friday Letter staff.
Send letters to the editor to Fridayletter@gilder.com
For technical problems, please e-mail Fridayhelp@gilder.com
Gilder Publishing, LLC
ATTN: Friday Letter
291A Main Street
Great Barrington, MA 01230
The Friday Letter is published weekly for subscribers and friends of Gilder Publishing. If someone you know would enjoy it, please feel free to forward a copy.
Gilder Publishing makes the Friday Letter available for free. To help defray some of the costs of producing this information on a weekly basis, we will from time to time be sending you offers from companies we think you'll be interested in. These offers will not come more than once a week. If you do not wish to receive this related information, please opt out of this process at the link below and we will not share your name with companies outside of Gilder Publishing.
To SUBSCRIBE please visit http://www.gilder.com/
To UNSUBSCRIBE please go to http://www.gilder.com/fridayletter/unsubscribe.php
Trouble subscribing or unsubscribing?
Copyright 2005 Gilder Publishing LLC