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- THE FRIDAY LETTER -
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| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 318.0/November 30,
2007
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HEADLINES:
- The
Week / George Gilder on the Exacosm (Video)
- Friday Feature / IPTV’s Ascent?
- Friday
Blogger Bonus / 2009 Market
Crash?
- Readings /
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The Week / George Gilder on the Exacosm (Video)
George Gilder speaking at the 11th Annual Gilder Forbes Telecosm Conference
(Video): We are in the world of the Exacosm and this is the eleventh annual
Telecosm Conference, so I thought I’d offer eleven laws of the Telecosm to
introduce this event…
View the video
of George Gilder’s Telecosm 2007 keynote:
|
The Gilder Telecosm Forum To
learn how to join this powerful network of talented, tech-savvy investors and
thinkers online daily to debate, discuss, and decode new and emerging
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Friday Feature / IPTV’s Ascent? (Gilder Telecosm
Forum)
Gilder Telecosm Forum Member #1 (11/24/07): Looking at that IPTV Daily, they seem to distinguish
between IPTV and Internet TV. I just figured they were the same. I am still
trying to fully understand the difference. This forum does not seem to make as
clear a distinction.
Gilder Telecosm Forum Member #2 (11/24/07): No, the [Gilder Telecosm Forum] has made a
crystal clear distinction between the two. You just haven't had the chance to
see the multitude of posts, IPTV is a "walled garden" and is
transported over telco lines for a subscription fee. Its video and audio
packets do not traverse the Internet. Cable TV (currently a broadcast system)
will eventually become IPTV (unicast and multicast). A major driver for IPTV is
bundling and high-definition content.
Web TV or Internet TV (free TV) is just that. It's
carried over the Internet. YouTube and Joost are two examples. Additional
resources on free TV:
http://worldtv.com/charts/
| http://www.internetvideomag.com/
George Gilder (11/24/07): This is an excellent distinction today in the minds of
the vendors, who cherish it. But it will tend to dissolve as both cable-cos and
telcos find themselves delivering both IPTV and Internet video. More and more
cable "channels" and more and more fiber-to-the-home bandwidth will
be devoted to Internet fare, which increasingly will be sold seamlessly for
reasonable payments.
Internet broadband is already the most profitable cable service and the telcos
will discover that they can compete with cable chiefly by offering the more
varied longtail content available on the net. The market for real-time
system-on-a-chip decoders and transcoders will take off when every household
has to provide converters for all the acronymic soup of SD, IMS, VOIP, MPEG,
3D, DOCSIS, DVD, DRM, H.323, HDTV and PC cable, telco, and satellite video
protocols.
All the networks will have to link to each other largely through session border
controllers, the new age routers operating at layer 5 (the session layer),
which handles quality of service, security, and transactions usually using the
session initiation protocols (SIP). This is the application that is already
spurring the market for upper layer network processors and content addressable
memories, and as they spread all the "walled gardens" will tend to
give way to the EZ Eden Garden paradigm.
Gilder Telecosm Forum
Member #1 (11/25/07): Is the "convergence" of the IPTV and the Internet
TV what is being termed VoD?
George Gilder (11/25/07): Video on Demand (VoD) is the name used by scores of
companies to depict some contrivance of video servers and broadband links
designed to deliver movies and other video to a home display
"on-demand."
Until residential fiber is widely deployed (2010) and coax is upgraded to
scores of megabits per second (2011+), all these systems will remain high end
niches compared to the existing information superhighway VoD system (1955).
In general, the optimal superhighway for VoD turns out to be the Interstate
Highway system, with Netflix using UPS trucks going about 50 miles an hour,
delivering 5 million DVDs per day in the US or some 50 petabytes per day, as
much as all US Internet traffic put together. Deliver 10 DVDs in 2 days &
you have a 24 hour data-rate of close to 4 megabits a second (which is about
the speed of an MPEG2 stream over DirecTV or a digital channel over CableTV).
Blue Ray disks triple that rate--12 megabits a second--using the same UPS
trucks.
Once in the house, however, these DVDs need to be Telecosmicly decoded at
wirespeed, regardless of their particular protocol or resolution or aspect
ratio. This creates a large opportunity for suppliers of multiprotocol media
processors. Perhaps others on the board can bail me out here, by naming the
producers of some of these devices.
Beyond UPS, the first upgrade will be IPTV (Internet Protocol TV), spearheaded
by Microsoft using the same kind of system-on-a-chip decoders used in DVD
players. Now being pioneered around the globe, IPTV mostly consists of
specialized channels on the model of the cableTV industry. There is a different
net for every video supplier, from DirecTV to Comcast to Verizon to ATT, but
all will use the same media processors used for DVDs.
With a lot of buffering and other tricks, such as Digital Fountain raptor
codes, it is possible to deliver adequate lower resolution, higher latency
video (though faster than trucks) over the conventional layer 3 and 4 best
efforts Internet or through wireless systems such as MediaFlo and DVD-H.
When all these incompatible IP nets--fiber, coax, satellite, wireless--are
interconnected by advanced generations of Session Level Layer 5 routers, called
Session Border Controllers (now produced chiefly by a single company), it will
be possible to have end to end Internet TV, ubiquitous video teleconferencing,
VOIP with video frills, and VoD projected around the world.
These video systems will still need the usual media processor decoders. It
would also be nice to interconnect the various High Definition household
displays without turning the floors and ceilings into video backplanes drooping
with wires. Ultra-wideband systems are competing with other short reach
broadband wireless systems to obviate the wires.
With technology stocks being promiscuously bashed and flummoxed, there should
be an opportunity in there somewhere.
To read more posts by George Gilder and the Gilder
Telecosm Forum members, visit http://www.gildertech.com/ and
log on today.
________________________________________
Friday Blogger Bonus / 2009 Market
Crash?
Gilder Telecosm Forum Member (11/24/07): Having heard a number of references to Harry Dent, I'm
interested to see the Forum’s opinion on Harry and his demographics,
particularly in relation to the baby boomers. In a nutshell, Harry says that
this market will boom through next year, and then bust big-time in 2009,
followed by another large housing crash and years of recession. The basis for
all this is that the boomers will be past there peak spending years by 2009-10
and they will be downsizing in housing. Their numbers he says cannot be
replaced.
Obviously, a market crash in 2009 will be right in the face of all that we
believe. I would love to hear what the great minds on this board think of this
scenario!
George Gilder (11/25/07): This is a world economy. Unless we go Lou Dobbsville
(a peculiar form of grievance sump where the world's richest and most
productive people feel victimized by the wretched of the earth), the ascendant
young savers of Asia and other low tax regions will buy our stocks and other
assets as we grow older. If we spurn protectionism, we will continue to benefit
from the cornucopian inventiveness of a booming world economy and be able to
buy and sell around the globe, igniting growth and prosperity everywhere. If
our tax rates and regulatory climate remains favorable, the world's leading
investors and entrepreneurs will come here and buy our high end housing as we
scuttle off in our RVs, virtual reality pods, and cushiony coffins.
But if we turn green and swirl nauseously left, raise taxes while the rest of
the world is lowering them, debauch our currency deciduously, and twist our
economy into a pretzel to avoid emitting CO2, all bets are off.
To read more
posts by George Gilder and the Gilder Telecosm Forum members, visit http://www.gildertech.com/
and log on today.
__________________________________________
Readings /
Sigma Designs
surges on upgrade and outlook
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sigma-designs-surges-new-record/story.aspx?guid=%7B89672E11-A5BB-434E-8238-C375E708A08D%7D
Google's quest for 700MHz is so on
http://www.engadget.com/2007/11/30/official-googles-quest-for-700mhz-is-so-on/
Apple developing mini-disc adapter for
slot-loading drives
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/07/11/29/apple_developing_mini_disc_adapter_for_slot_loading_drives.html
Weekly GTI Index
http://www.gtindex.com/
Online Education Revolution
Finally Here (more or less)
http://www.disco-tech.org/2007/11/online_education_revolution_is.html
Power Transmission Without
the Power Electronics
http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/nov07/5714
__________________________________________
Friday Letter Editor:
Mary Collins George / mcollins@gilder.com
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