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| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 321.0/December
21, 2007
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HEADLINES:
- The Week / The Terrifying Future of Computing
- Friday Feature / The Dangers
of Living in a Zero-sum World Economy
- Friday Blogger Bonus / Don't want to be the Grinch, but…
- Readings /
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The Week / The Terrifying Future of Computing
Spencer Reiss, Wired (12/20/07): Q&A:
Author Nicholas Carr on the Terrifying Future of Computing
Nicholas Carr is high tech's Captain Buzzkill — the go-to guy for
bad news. A former executive editor of Harvard Business Review, he
tossed a grenade under big-budget corporate computing with his 2004 polemic Does
IT Matter? (Answer: Not really, because all companies have it in
spades.) Carr's new book, The Big Switch, targets the emerging
"World Wide Computer" — dummy PCs tied to massive server farms way up
in the data cloud. We asked Carr why he finds the future of computing so scary.
Wired: IBM founder Thomas J. Watson is
quoted — possibly misquoted — as saying the world needs only five computers. Is
it true?
Carr: The World Wide Web is becoming one vast,
programmable machine. As NYU's Clay Shirky likes to say, Watson was off by
four.
Wired: When does the big switch from the
desktop to the data cloud happen?
Carr: Most people are already there. Young people
in particular spend way more time using so-called cloud apps — MySpace, Flickr,
Gmail — than running old-fashioned programs on their hard drives. What's
amazing is that this shift from private to public software has happened without
us even noticing it.
Wired: What happened to privacy worries?
Carr: People say they're nervous about storing
personal info online, but they do it all the time, sacrificing privacy to save
time and money. Companies are no different. The two most popular Web-based
business applications right now are for managing payroll and customer accounts
— some of the most sensitive information companies have.
Wired: What's left for PCs?
Carr: They're turning into network terminals.
Wired: Just like Sun Microsystems' old
mantra, "The network is the computer"?
Carr: It's no coincidence that Google CEO Eric Schmidt cut his
teeth there. Google is fulfilling the destiny that Sun sketched out.
Read the complete interview:
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/people/magazine/16-01/st_qa
NOTE: Spencer Reiss is the former editor of Gilder Publishing’s New Economy Watch newsletter. Visit
the archives on http://www.gildertech.com/.
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Friday Feature / The Dangers
of Living in a Zero-sum World Economy
Martin Wolf, Financial Times (12/19/07): We live in a positive-sum world economy and have done so for about two
centuries. This, I believe, is why democracy has become a political norm,
empires have largely vanished, legal slavery and serfdom have disappeared and
measures of well-being have risen almost everywhere. What then do I mean by a
positive-sum economy? It is one in which everybody can become better off. It is
one in which real incomes per head are able to rise indefinitely.
How long might such a world last, and what might
happen if it ends? The debate on the connected issues of climate change and
energy security raises these absolutely central questions.
As I argued in a previous column ("Welcome to
a world of runaway energy demand", November 14, 2007), fossilised sunlight
and ideas have been the twin drivers of the world economy. So nothing less is
at stake than the world we inhabit, by which I mean its political and economic,
as well as physical, nature.
According to Angus Maddison, the economic historian, humanity's average
real income per head has risen 10-fold since 1820. Increases have also occurred
almost everywhere, albeit to hugely divergent extents: US incomes per head have
risen 23-fold and those of Africa merely four-fold. Moreover, huge improvements
have happened, despite a more than six-fold increase in the world's population.
It is an astonishing story with hugely desirable consequences. Clever use
of commercial energy has immeasurably increased the range of goods and services
available. It has also substantially reduced both our own drudgery and our
dependence on that of others. Serfs and slaves need no longer satisfy the appetites
of narrow elites. Women need no longer devote their lives to the demands of
domesticity. Consistent rises in real incomes per head have transformed our
economic lives.
What is less widely understood is that they have also transformed
politics….
Read on:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6b28b57a-add3-11dc-9386-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
RELATED READING
Rich Karlgaard, Digital Rules blog (12/20/07): The no-growth wing of the green movement cannot wash
its hands of the calamitous consequences of zero growth and a zero sum world… Link: http://blogs.forbes.com/digitalrules/
________________________________________
Friday Blogger Bonus / Don't want to be the Grinch, but …
Aaron Katsman, BloggingStocks.com (12/20/07):
Don't want to be the Grinch, but the economy isn't so
bad
Today's report
that the US economy grew buy 4.9% in the 3rd quarter even with pressure from
the housing market, is a tribute to the strength of the economy. The fact that
in the third quarter, the housing slump cut a sizable 1.08% off GDP, makes you
admire just how strong and resilient the economy is. I hate to burst the bubble
of the mainstream media (could they have a political agenda?), but facts are
facts. Unemployment remains low at just 4.7%, the economy is growing, taxes
remain low, and interest rates are falling. I admit that fourth quarter (Q4)
GDP numbers wont equal Q3's but a recession? Not going to happen. The pessimist
always say that the consumer will stop spending and that will be the nail in
the coffin. Well I have been hearing this for years and years, and they
continue to spend and there is no reason to think they will stop spending….
Read the entire blog on
BloggingStocks.com:
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/12/20/dont-want-to-be-the-grinch-but-the-economy-isnt-so-bad/
__________________________________________
Readings /
A Christmas Column
http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2007/12/15/trout-marketing-religion-oped-cx_jt_1218trout.html
Qualcomm Raises Forecast
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119816123736642421.html?mod=technology_main_whats_news
Slower light for faster telecom networks
http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/dec07/5795
Weekly GTI Index
http://www.gtindex.com/
__________________________________________
Friday Letter Editor: Mary Collins George / mcollins@gilder.com
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