_______________________________________________
- THE FRIDAY LETTER -
(emailed weekly,
from Gilder Publishing,
for friends and subscribers)
_______________________________________________
| http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 312.0/September
28, 2007
SIGN-UP A FRIEND FOR FREE!
HEADLINES:
- The
Week / Transmeta: Flawed Strategy?
- Friday Feature / Ken Fisher: The Fall 2007 Rally
- Friday Blogger Bonus / Last Week Belonged to Sigma
|
Gilder/Forbes
Telecosm 2007 CONFERENCE
|
The Week / Transmeta: Flawed Strategy?
Telecosm 2007
Announcement:
Intellectual Property and Patent Power Added to Program (2:15 pm, October 18)
Featuring:
David Dull, Senior Vice President of Business Affairs, General Counsel, Broadcom
Daniel Leckrone, Chairman, TLP Group
Sean Murphy, Vice President and Counsel, International Government Affairs, Qualcomm
Marshall Phelps, Corporate Vice President for
IP Policy and Practices, Microsoft
Vincent Pluvinage,
General Manager of Strategic Alliance and Private Equity Partnerships, Intellectual
Ventures
David
Simon, Director of Patents, Intel
John Thorne,
Senior Vice President and Deputy General Counsel, Verizon
Moderated by: George Gilder, Editor, Gilder
Telecosm Forum
_____________________
Gilder Telecosm
Forum Member
A (9/26/07): This
should be an excellent panel!
Since you have both Broadcom and Qualcomm
in the room, any thought to having Transmeta there since Intel
will be present?
Gilder Telecosm
Forum Member
B (9/26/07): [At Telecosm] in 2000 I was privy to a private
conversation between Carver Mead and one of the founders of Transmeta. Carver
was very interested in the clever ways that Transmeta had reduced power
consumption in microprocessing chips. He expressed amazement at how they had
overcome some major barriers and were so far ahead of the curve at the time.
I have followed the company since then and have made money off the
volatility in the stock price as Transmeta has struggled to execute and make
any profits against their giant rivals. For them it has seemed like one step
forward and two steps back in getting all the bugs out of their chips. Now that
they are exclusively an IP company their payday can only come in vigorously
defending their patents. Even if they don't win in court against Intel, their
patent portfolio should be worth a lot of money to some company.
Nick Tredennick, Gilder Telecosm
Forum (9/15/07): Transmeta was a Dynamic Silicon company. I chose it for the
technology (both low-power and dynamic code analysis), but the company insisted
on building microprocessors for direct competition with Intel and with AMD.
I thought the strategy flawed and tried to talk the company's executives into
building microprocessors for the embedded market and into licensing soft-core
microprocessors. I had no success with my arguments. There's still no company licensing
x86 cores and it's still an open opportunity.
To read more posts by Nick
Tredennick and the Gilder Telecosm Forum members, visit http://www.gildertech.com/ and log on today.
Register FOR
TELECOSM ONLINE today: http://www.telecosmconference.com/
|
The Gilder Telecosm Forum To
learn how to join this powerful network of talented, tech-savvy investors and
thinkers online daily to debate, discuss, and decode new and emerging
technologies and share valuable and actionable investment advice, visit www.Gildertech.com
today. |
Friday Feature / The
Fall 2007 Rally
Ken Fisher, “The Fall 2007
Rally”, Forbes
magazine: Don't let this fall's rally whiz right by you before
you take a close look at stocks from Asia. The midsummer correction--at one
point on Aug. 16 the Morgan Stanley World Index was down 12.5% from its 2007
high--provided a great time to get into stocks on the other side of the
dateline. If you don't own this region, now is the time to get in. When the
rally resumes, Asia will lead. These stocks are to this market what tech stocks
were to the mid-1990s.
What makes me so sure that we're in a rally, not a long-running decline? Four things. The first has to do with the shape of a bull market termination. The final peak does not arrive sharply. It tends to have a gentle upward slope, as the final but diminishing round of suckers is drawn in. And then the decline (usually) begins with a gentle slope, too (October 1987 was the exception proving the rule--over almost instantly), as some buyers continue to come in even after the bull market is over. The bull market leading up to the July 16 peak was too sudden and the plunge too sharp to presage a real bear market.
Second,
bear markets don't start from old news. In this case the old news is that many
subprime borrowers are going to default on their mortgages. While this
misfortune is still unfolding, the basic facts have been out for a while. A
fundamental rule of markets is that old news runs out of power. It takes new
information to move stock prices.
Third,
it usually takes a severe credit crunch to set a genuine bear market in motion.
This credit crunch, at least for corporate borrowers, is not severe. You
measure crunch by the spread in yields between junk bonds and Treasury bonds of
like maturity. In 2000 that spread widened by three to four percentage points,
a harbinger of both a broad tumble in stock prices and an economic contraction.
In that case, moreover, the widening spread came atop rising Treasury interest
rates--weak corporate borrowers had two strikes against them. Contrast that
with what's happening now. Junk spreads widened by only a percentage point
before going back the other way, and much of the widening was from a fall in
Treasury rates, hardly bearish. This is a phony credit crunch.
Fourth,
the media always jump on a short-term correction but rarely wake up to a
long-term bear market in its early phases. One form of this media attention is
trotting out the perma-bears to deliver their "I told you so" speeches
to the tv cameras, with scenes of the New York Stock Exchange running in the
background. Generally speaking, the friendly interviewer conducting the show
neglects to ask the bear when he first turned bearish and how much the market
is up since then.
As
with all corrections, a few months from now we will be wondering what the fuss
was about. And Asian and Indian stocks will be much higher. Here are six I like
… [Read On]
Find out which
six Asian and Indian stocks Ken likes: http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2007/0917/210_print.html
Hear Ken
Fisher speak at Gilder/Forbes Telecosm 2007, October 17 in Lake George, New York. Register ONLINE today: http://www.telecosmconference.com/
________________________________________
Friday Blogger Bonus / Last Week Belonged to Sigma
Dick Sears, Gilder Technology Index (9/21/07): The week
belonged to Sigma Designs (SIGM). Despite falling 2.2% today, SIGM was
up 16.1% for the week, bringing it to a gain of 100% for the year. Only ten
weeks ago, it was in the red for 2007.
The sub-prime "correction" ran from July 19 to August 16. During that
time, the GTI lost 10.0%, and the NASDAQ 9.9%, but SIGM lost only 1.2%. For the
sub-prime recovery period, the five weeks since August 16, SIGM is up 62% --
compared to 8.7% for the GTI and 9.0% for the NASDAQ.
It's a wonderful record, especially for a stock that was already up 65% in
2006. It brings back fond memories of the glory days of 1999 and early 2000….
Sigma is widely owned by the people who post at the Gilder Telecosm Forum. With
its recent
strength, it may well be the forum's largest holding. It is mine, or at least
it was until late this afternoon….
Check out Dick’s Weekly GTI site:
http://www.gtindex.com/
__________________________________________
FRIDAY LETTER STAFF
Editor: Mary Collins George / mcollins@gilder.com
Research: Sandy Fleischmann / sfleischmann@gilder.com
ADVERTISING INFORMATION
The Friday Letter is mailed each week to more than 40,000-plus
subscribers and friends of Gilder Publishing, including industry leaders,
financial professionals and individual investors. For information about
advertising, contact Linda Bentley at lbentley@forbes.com.
PLEASE NOTE: The appearance of an advertisement in the Friday Letter
does not indicate an endorsement for the product and/or service by George
Gilder, Gilder Publishing LLC, or the Friday Letter staff.
FEEDBACK AND PROBLEMS
For technical problems, or to send letters to the editor, please
e-mail info@gilder.com.
MAILING ADDRESS
Gilder Publishing, LLC
ATTN: Friday Letter
291A Main Street
Great Barrington, MA 01230
_______________________________________________
The Friday Letter is published weekly for subscribers and
friends of Gilder Publishing. If someone you know would enjoy it, please feel
free to forward a copy.
Gilder Publishing makes the Friday Letter available for free. To
help defray some of the costs of producing this information on a weekly basis,
we will from time to time be sending you offers from companies we think you'll
be interested in. These offers will not come more than once a week. If you do
not wish to receive this related information, please opt out of this process at
the link below and we will not share your name with companies outside of Gilder
Publishing.
To SUBSCRIBE please visit http://www.gilder.com/
To UNSUBSCRIBE please go to http://www.gilder.com/fridayletter/unsubscribe.php
Trouble subscribing or unsubscribing?
Email info@gilder.com
http://www.gilder.com/unsubscribe/specialproducts.php
To SUBSCRIBE please visit http://www.gilder.com/
To UNSUBSCRIBE please go to http://www.gilder.com/fridayletter/unsubscribe.php
Trouble subscribing or unsubscribing?
Email info@gilder.com
_______________________________________________
Copyright 2007 Gilder Publishing LLC