=================================== from Gilder Publishing THE FRIDAY LETTER e-mailed weekly, for friends and subscribers =================================== | http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 122.0/September 12, 2003 HEADLINES: * The Week/ The Future in Bits * Friday Feature/ RFID: The Next Big Little Thing? * Friday Bonus/ Interview * Friday Bonus II/ Essex * Poll Question * Subscribe/Unsubscribe THE WEEK/ The Future in Bits ~~~~~~~ Sun Micro. co-founder and futurist, Bill Joy, announced on Tuesday that he is leaving Sun to pursue other interests. Joy's duties will be handled by Sun CTO, Greg Papadopoulos. A futurist in his own right, Greg Papadopoulos recently spoke to a captivated audience at the Gilder/Forbes Telecosm Conference on August 25 on "Infra-destructuring and Awareness: when all things are on the net," a topic he writes about in the article excerpted below, originally published in Computerworld on July 21, 2003. The Future in Bits, by Greg Papadopoulos I look at everyday objects differently now, and you will too when you realize that bits -- the binary digits of electronic data -- are starting to show up in the most unexpected places. We are now able to make sensors and radio-frequency tags so small that we can put them into anything: light bulbs, milk cartons, sprinkler systems and building materials. Call it "bitmass" -- bits increasingly intertwined with atoms to make the digital equivalent of biomass. It's going to change the texture of our world. Consider the heat tiles on the underbelly of NASA's space shuttles. I look at them and imagine bits in the tiles. The shuttle could then become much more self-aware -- it would notice, for example, if one of the tiles was missing. And if tragedy occurred, we could piece together answers by asking the pieces what happened to them. Structures could be made aware of their parameters and keep track of their own conditions over time. Imagine asking your house, "Were you hurt in yesterday's earthquake?" It sounds like science fiction, but it's not. We've already done the electronic materials engineering. Now we're starting to interweave small amounts of computing and storage into a range of materials and objects. To read the complete article, visit: http://www.sun.com/executives/perspectives/bits.html Additional articles by Greg Papadopoulos: Innovation is the Heart of the IT Industry http://it.asia1.com.sg/specials/issues20030326_001.html Why Computer Design Must Change http://news.com.com/2010-1076-904175.html The "S" Curve and Other Paths http://www.sun.com/executives/perspectives/s-curve.html =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- The Gilder Technology Report is a technology strategy report and a valuable tool in the investment decision-making process. The development of an investment strategy, particularly for technology, requires the formulation of new paradigms, or broad patterns of change, that convey the crucial signals of opportunity. Subscribe to the Gilder Technology Report today at a special introductory price of $195 for 12 issues and receive FREE access to the Gildertech subscriber forum and a FREE SUBSCRIPTION to the Whitebox Market Observer, a monthly advisory service by former GTR publisher Richard Vigilante and superlatively successful veteran fund manager Andrew Redleaf, helping intelligent independent investors find low-risk, high-return opportunities even in difficult times. For subscription details, visit: http://www.gildertech.com/ =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Friday Feature/ RFID: The Next Big Little Thing? ~~~~~~~~~~~ The Next Big Thing? It has been lurking in the background of conversations about RFID for years. It promises tags nearly as inexpensive as bar code labels. It promises cost-effective disposable RFID tags for low-cost items. It promises to be the breakthrough RFID needs to become universally adopted. Is it possible? First, let's understand the difference between "possible" and "probable." As one bar code industry pundit is fond of saying when faced with unlikely promises, "Yes, and it's possible to jog underwater, too." So, yes, it is possible. Okay, but what is "it"? To read the complete article, visit: http://www.aimglobal.org/technologies/rfid/resources/papers/nextbigthing.htm For more on RFID; what it is; how it works; and why its time has come, view the PowerPoint slides from "The Next Big Thing", presented by Bill Colleran, President and CEO, Impinj, at The 7th Annual Gilder/Forbes Telecosm Conference on Monday August 25. The presentation is now available at: http://www.gildertech.com/public/Impinj.htm More on RFID: RFID Blocker May Ease Privacy Fears http://news.zdnet.co.uk/hardware/emergingtech/0,39020357,39115965,00.htm Within A Lilliputian Player, A Hefty Archive That Travels http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/11/technology/circuits/11howw.html?8cir XM Raises Funds For Backup Satellites http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A62807-2003Sep11.html AOL TW: Subs Eager for Video-on-demand http://www.cedmagazine.com/cedailydirect/0903/cedaily030912.htm =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- GILDER BOOK SALE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Purchase new copies of Wealth and Poverty, Men and Marriage, Life After Television, and Telecosm, by George Gilder, at greatly reduced prices. Email Tina Chase at tchase@gilder.com to for prices and to reserve your books today! =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Friday Bonus/ Interview: Steven Greenberg on VOIP (Voice over IP) Telephony ~~~~~~~~ What follows is the transcript of a Sept. 9 online chat on the Forbes.com CEO Network hosted by Stephen Greenberg, chief executive of Net2Phone. FDEDITORS: ...Cable telephony and especially Voice Over Internet Protocol (VOIP) have been ballyhooed for years as the next big thing. Has VOIP finally arrived? S_GREENBERG: We believe that VOIP is now at the starting point. We pioneered this industry back in 1995 and have been perfecting it to the point where it is now a viable technology. FDCEDITORS: What about the quality issue? Has the industry brought itself up to carrier grade, or at least close enough to be competitive? S_GREENBERG: The two greatest barriers to cable telephony and VOIP taking off in the US have been quality and accessibility. We have overcome both of those barriers due to a number of reasons. Firstly, we have improved our technology considerably over the past eight years. We have adopted standards in both the cable and VOIP space. Additionally, through our cable telephony initiative, we can now manage the calls from the first mile (the customer's home) to the last mile by managing a cable operator's network for them. To read the full transcript of the interview, visit: http://www.forbes.com/2003/09/10/0910chat_transcript.html Other Readings/ Archived Webcast: Cato Institute's archived webcast of "Will Internet Telephony Bring About A Revolution in Telecom Policy?" http://www.cato.org/events/030909pf.html =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Advertisement ~~~~~~~~~~ *** Profit From the Next Dot Com Turnaround By Getting In Ahead of Wall Street Growth Report is a leading investment newsletter service focused on investing in fundamentally sound, small capitalization growth stocks. Our top performer, dot com turn-around Bankrate (RATE), is up 1,085% in a little over one year. We now have a Special Report on a similar company we believe could deliver outstanding profits to early investors who "Buy" ahead of Wall Street. Sign-up for a free 30-day trial subscription to the leading growth stock investment newsletter service that is +59.9% in the first 8 months of the 2003. Just follow this link to get this free Special Report and 30-days free - http://www.bizfn.com/growth/?SN=LO20030716168 =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Friday Bonus II/ George Gilder on Essex's Optical Mux/Demux ~~~~~~~~~~~~ Excerpted from George Gilder's posts on the http://www.gildertech.com Gilder Technology Report subscriber message board. To read more of Mr. Gilder's posts, and share insights with other Gilder subscribers, visit http://www.gildertech.com Excerpted from subscriber's question: "...they [Essex] have some contract with the government, but that will not help the company expand and develop more products to the commercial sector. Also what keeps them from issuing more shares to help fund the expansion to the commercial market..." George Gilder's 9/8/03 reply: "I try to find unique technologies that fit with the paradigm of an increasingly analog all optical network that will be far cheaper, faster and more secure than the existing optoelectronic hybrids. Worldclass optical inventor Terry Turpin and his team at Essex have created a monolithic optical mux-demux device that can resolve wavelengths at separations below one percent of the current state of the art (25 GHz) and enable as many as 10,000 carriers on a single fiber optic thread compared to a current state of the art of a few hundred. Called Hyperfine and now being demonstrated at NFOEC in Orlando, this device makes possible the spread of fiber optics through metro and residential areas and even into the campus and the enterprise. At present, there is no commercial market for this device and no significant market for any other advanced optical communications gear (cf Corvis). Therefore these companies have to contrive niche markets for their equipment. Essex has long served the National Security Agency and other high security markets. It has several active contracts for an array of products and services related to its Hyperfine invention. Thus it may well survive to sell Hyperfine to commercial carriers. If Hyperfine succeeds, it will immediately redefine the state of the art in optical connectivity, leaping several generations ahead and establishing a monopoly in the field. But Essex remains a risky bet on a radically new technology. Caveat emptor." =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Gilder.com Poll Last Week: Do you own a digital camera? Yes? No? Results: Yes (69.3%), No (30.7%) This Week: Is the promise of RFID worth a "privacy" tradeoff? Yes? No? Let us know. Submit your vote at http://www.gilder.com/ ***Bonus Poll Question*** Would you be interested in purchasing written and/or audio transcripts of the 7th Annual Gilder/Forbes Telecosm conference (August 25 - 26 in Lake Tahoe)? Let us know. Email your response to info@gilder.com and let us know if you are interested in a written or audio transcript of Telecosm 2003. =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Readings ~~~~~~~ Dapra To Fund Optical Interconnect Research http://www.eetimes.com/story/OEG20030910S0040 IBM, Intersil Forge Foundry Deal For Power ICs http://www.eetimes.com/story/OEG20030911S0041 IDC Predicts Strong Mobile Phone Growth In 2004 http://www.embedded.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=14400016 Camera Phones Go Clamshell http://www.forbes.com/2003/09/08/cx_ah_0908tentech.html Camera-Phone Sales Quickly Increasing In Europe http://www.rcrnews.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?newsId=15062 Apple Gears Up For Fall http://www.forbes.com/2003/09/09/cx_ah_0909tentech.html Sharp To Launch 3D-Display Notebook PC, Says Report http://www.siliconstrategies.com/article/showArticle.jhtml?articleId=14703066 FCC Defers To IEEE on UWB Ruling http://www.rcrnews.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?newsId=15071 Home Use Driving WiFi Adoption http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=14700466 Will The Penguin Conquer Asia? http://businessweek.com/technology/content/sep2003/tc2003098_1035_tc058.htm The Kazaa Conundrum http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/10/technology/techinvestor/hellweg/index.htm BigChampagne Is Watching You http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.10/fileshare.html The Internet Book Race http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/11/business/11SCEN.html FRIDAY LETTER STAFF ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Sandy Fleischmann (sfleischmann@gilder.com) Mary Collins Gorski (mcollins@gilder.com) ADVERTISING INFORMATION ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The Friday Letter is mailed each week to more than 150,000-plus subscribers and friends of Gilder Publishing, including industry leaders, financial professionals and individual investors. 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