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author:
George Gilder
subject: Re: George: stockmarket
Unless you grasp why you are buying shares in a company, you will lack
the confidence to hold during the inevitable periods when the market turns
against your company. You will end up buying at the top and selling at
the bottom. Knowledge is critical to investment power. --GG
author: RAN
subject: July GTR
The July GTR explains the major competition to the all-optical Gilder
paradigm.The relative amount of space devoted to BRW versus the discussion
of the NT-led solution versus WDM ought to indicate the GTR's assessment
of the relative importance of the two subjects. In the end,especially
in light of today's capital shortages, communication carriers will be
paying very close attention to the relative costs of upgrading to OC-768
and OC-3092 versus installing scalable WDM on OC-48 and OC-192 fiber.
If the cost figures set forth in today's GTR are accurate, thenNT has
chosen the wrong road. (Jackaloupe can probably AMPlify on this issue.)
However, no one whoeven skims this issue should fail to understand the
next battle to be fought between TDM and WDM. For that, I find this issue
to be very informative and helpful in my future investment decisions.
(This does not mean that I am going to run out and buy immediately BRW,
CORV, AVNX and ESEX.) It does mean that as Iread otherresource materials
on this issue; e.g., lightreading.com, I will befocused much more closely
on the developments in this conflict.
--RAN
author: stbartguy
subject: Napster/Livewire
The point in the article about Napster being responsible for about 50%
of the internets traffic is very important. As a casual user of other
services like LIMEWIRE it is easy to see how this traffic could explode.
Typical Napster files were 4 meg, however video files on Limewire are
50 Meg to 500 meg for a movie. For example a 1/2 Star Trek episode is
about 277 Meg. approximately 70 times larger than a typical Napster file.
Just to be clear we are talking about orders of magnitude larger, not
20% or 50% more, but 700% more with one application. I keep track of the
number of users on Limewire and they are growing exponentially on a monthly
basis. All of today's dark fiber will not be sufficient to serve the future
requirements, with their current multiplexing technology. Avanex type
solutions will be critical for the coming full service deployment. If
you are interested in looking at the future you would be served well by
exploring all new technology as research for your investment. In other
words push technology to the limit today to see what is coming down the
road. Subscribe to the fastest internet connection, use the most demanding
applications and see what resources they need. Subscribe to HDTV and see
just how much more resolution there is and what is the bandwidth required.
Download huge files and see how long it takes with the current infrastructure.
How much faster does it have to get for AOL to make it commercially viable
so the user can purchase a product without loosing interest in the few
hours it may take to down load. The point is the 40% drop in revenues
are linear compared to the non linear industry we invest in. These predictions
investors try to hang their hats on are just stabs in the dark and are
not useful if you are looking at two to five years down the road, as they
will surely be wrong. The future is much bigger than we can imagine. Sal
author: NEO
subject: Re: Corporate LANs
The plugging in of corporate LAN's to the Internet will indeed lead to
exabyte data floods (as GG states) but common sense dictates corporates
will hardly give up security, permissioned access and control - Once again
Novell seems is riding the paradigm very well (and way ahead of the herd!)
via a eDirectory based network utility...
Novell is
an Exabyte Enabler! Regards .NEO.
author: filteredblue
subject: Re: Investor?
Hi MPerry, As an outcome of the '85-'86 crash..wealth went to those who
invested in computing's biggest scarcity -- accessto the millions. Companies
like DELL, MSFT and INTC. .Those investors who lost out invested where computing
had its greatest abundance: delivering access for the few expensive customers
- as in super computing and mainframes. GG's drawing the same parallel today.
The companies that make the same levelsof high (as in lambda) access availableto
the millions at the edge will bethe winners, vrs companies that are focused
on the "empty stunt" of higher and higher complexity,and bandwdthtransmission/switching
for the few. A few carriers and a few big customers. Chistensen talks about
companies and their technologies that empower "large new populations of
customers, previously left out, to do things for themselves which they could
not do before". FB
author: George Gilder
subject: Re: nufo
New Focus is on the list and we like it best of the new generation of components
players. It maintains an edge in tunable lasers, which will be a huge market
in the future but which is attracting many contestants, including JDSU's
Einhoven branch. Optics is our leading area and Avanex and Corvis are our
prime optics players. JDSU, currently near a bottom in anticipation of large
goodwill writeoffs, remains a good way to play the field. --GG
author: Bret Swanson
subject: Re: Broadcom
Broadcom may own 90+% of the cable chipset business, but it has diversified
in the last 18 months with the purchase of maybe 15 companies. It now does
stellar work in Gigabit and 10 Gigabit Ethernet, network processors, switch
fabrics, reconfigurable Layer-7 devices, wireless Bluetooth, etc, etc. And
the cable business isn't going away tomorrow. Narad will probably be deployed
first to small and medium sized businesses where the revenue and margins
are higher than residential, but eventually it could enjoy widespread deployment
to our homes as well. More on Narad soon... -Bret Swanson
author: Jay Omega
subject: Re: divide
That's right! Stay on the right side of the divide! Notice that Data General
was mentioned in the abstracts and those guys did crash and burn along with
DEC, Wang, etc. It looks like the moral of the story is that companies which
do survive these crashes and "shake outs" can go on to great success but
as an investor, you had better have your money on the right horses. I find
my GTR as valuable as ever as we go through this tumultuous time.FWIW-Jay
Omega
author: George Gilder
subject: Avanex
Avanex differs drastically from the network processor throngs since it
has developed and tested several entire systems based on unique technological
insights. The glory and possible peril of Avanex is that it is distinctive
in its functions as well as in its technology. Avanex allows a dramatically
more cost effective network. These network processors perform the same
functions already accomplished by Cisco equipment but more cheaply. --GG
author: Richard Vigilante
subject: Re: bad times
Nobody who doubts that moments like this will come even in the lives of
even fantastically successful companies should be investing directly in
common stocks. As we wrote recently, in the mid 1980s things briefly looked
so bad in the semiconductor industry that AMD actually had a negative sales
quarter--more returns than new sales. Intel was nearly as bad. Until that
happens to some of the crucial Telecosm companies like Avanex, this slump
can't even compare. It is in times like these that deep understanding of
the fundamental, paradigmatic issues, the confidence such an understanding
builds, and the courage to stick with your convictions are the most crucial
investment tools. Even so--there will be losers. Total, absolute, gone to
zero wipeouts. You will own some of them, because a paradigm bet can't preclude
Acts of God, Alan Greenspan, or horrifying management blunders. The question
is--did you start out with that presumption? Did you realize that by choosing
a high risk, high return sector, you were signing up for some individual
disasters as part of a strategy for high over all return if the paradigm
proves out in general? If you did, you're OK even now. For too-close tea
leaf readers, no I am not suggesting avnx as a disaster. It's still one
of my favorites precisely because as we hit a recovery it will be the low
cost, most paradigmatic players who will triumph. In that sense the shake
out is good news for paradigm companies and investors. Expensive opto-electronics
and SONET equipment were being artificially propped up by the building boom.
They aren't coming back, but the all optical guys will because of huge cost
advantages. But for now a sales reversal of the magnitude just announced
by avnx barely even qualifies as news in this environment. Best, RV
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